Without Grandpa Burt in Attendance …. (Game 153 Preview) September 24, 2015
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Sports.Tags: Josh Smith, preview, Steven Matz
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Photo by Bill Kostroun (NY Post)
Tonight’s game is a replay of July 28th, when a guy from Ward Melville High School, previously best known for having a delicious sandwich named after him, went 3 for 3 with a double and 4 RBIs up against a fellow rookie.
Steven Matz, whose grandfather was shocked and awed at Steven’s performance, has continued to maintain high performance standards since his debut. Meanwhile, Josh Smith of the Reds was laid off after July 4th, only to come back as a September callup. Since then, he’s been used twice in relief – a two-inning, one-hit appearance on September 8 and two runs and three hits in a third of an inning on the 13th – before being moved back into the rotation. In his most recent appearance, Smith started against the Brewers on September 19 and was lifted for reliever Brennan Boesch after four innings, 6 hits, 4 runs (all earned), 2 walks, and 3 strikeouts.
In 18 plate appearances in the July game, Mets had 4 hits and 4 walks (2 intentional). If you remove 3 IBBs from Smith’s 2015 line, his KBB is an anemic 1.17. His AAA numbers are significantly better (69 strikeouts and 23 unintentional walks [3.0 KBB] over 86 1/3 innings pitched), but Smith has been looking outclassed.
Matz faced the Reds only once, allowing 4 hits and 3 walks, striking out 5. Since then, his KBB is at 2.6, so his control has improved since his debut. He’s been in front of a .250 BAbip, which is slightly better than the league average, but has helped his own cause with 3 hits.
The Mets enter with some defensive difficulties and Tyler Clippard has pitched the last three days; though Terry has used Clippard often, expect him to sit tonight unless the game goes into extra innings. Bobby Parnell hasn’t pitched since the 19th, so he’ll probably see some work tonight.
Yoenis Cespedes hasn’t homered since September 14 but is hitting .357 with a 1.114 OPS in his last four games; Michael Conforto is 2 for 12 over the same stretch. Lucas Duda will likely start against the right-handed Smith. Duda is hitting .100 over the last 4 games, but with a .400 OBP due in large part to 5 walks (2 intentional).
The Reds are 0-3 against the Mets with a -7 run differential; in September, they are 9-12, scored 95 runs and allowed 103 for a -8 run differential. Their last series was visiting the Cardinals, so the numbers don’t compare directly, but they were outscored 15-4.
The Mets’ magic number is 5, so a sweep of this 4-game series would leave them in position to clinch with a win in any of three games visiting Philadelphia.
Is Jeurys Familia’s performance a cause for concern? September 24, 2015
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: BABIP, bullpen usage, Jeurys Familia
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Following a blown save by Addison Reed and a perfect inning by Tyler Clippard, Jeurys Familia entered last night’s 3-3 game in the 9th. Familia struck out Jace Peterson, allowed a single to Cameron Maybin, and then walked Michael Bourn. Freddie Freeman hit a home run; Familia followed up by striking out Nick Markakis and Met-killer Adonis Garcia, but the damage was done. Pinch hitter Juan Uribe singled, but Wilmer Flores banged into a double play and Curtis Granderson grounded out to second to end the game.
Photo: slgckgc on Flickr
Familia came to prominence during the first half of the season, in which he pitched in 41 games, notching 27 saves, a 3.31 KBB ratio, and a 1.25 ERA in front of a .217 BAbip. He allowed 26 hits including 3 doubles, a triple, and 3 home runs. Since the All Star break, Familia has pitched in 31 games with 14 saves, a 6.50 KBB, a 2.87 ERA, and a .342 BAbip. He’s allowed 30 hits, including 5 doubles and 3 home runs.
Those numbers say a lot about Familia’s consistency. First, his control ratio has increased considerably – by dropping from 13 walks (one intentional) to only 6 in the second half, and striking out 39 compared to 43 in the first half, Familia has shown remarkable command in the second half of the season. Further, that change in batting average on balls in play demonstrates that Familia has gotten a bit unlucky or that the defense behind him has flagged a bit with all of the offensive moves that were made. (Although Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto have been solid defensively, Daniel Murphy and Juan Uribe haven’t been fantastic solutions defensively at second base. Uribe is a fantastic third baseman playing out of position; Murphy might be more useful in the American League as a designated hitter.)
But what about those home runs? Those aren’t picked up in BAbip calculations because they’re not defense-dependent, and they might be tied to some factor that’s increasing his strikeouts.
During the first season, Familia pitched in 166 plate appearances, so those 3 home runs gave him a rate of about .018 home runs per plate appearance. Based on that, we’d expect in his 129 plate appearances since the All Star Game he’d have allowed about 2.33 home runs; 3 home runs is about .44 standard deviations away from his first-half numbers (and since fractional home runs aren’t a thing…..).
The biggest concern is that Familia has allowed more runners to reach base. All three homers in the first half were solos, two of them leading off (one with one out). Since then, Familia has allowed one solo and two 3-run home runs. The bigger issue is that these runners are reaching base – again, possibly due to that BAbip number cited above.
Familia is one of the best closers in the league. Put a solid defense behind him and he’ll continue to perform.
It’s time for the Mets to retire #8. September 23, 2015
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Gary Carter, Mets, Retire 8, Yogi Berra
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Yogi Berra has passed away. In his 90 years, he served as a player and coach, a Navy seaman at Normandy, a source of lighthearted comedy, and an inspiration to many young players and fans. Although he famously didn’t say everything he said, Yogi is a memorable character who will never be forgotten.
Yogi and his fellow #8, Gary Carter, have a lot in common. They are both remembered for accomplishments with other teams. Yogi’s #8 was retired by the Yankees in 1972, and he was memorialized in the Broadway play “Bronx Bombers.” Meanwhile, Carter is in Cooperstown as an Expo, despite his greatest success coming as a Met.
It’s been three years since Gary Carter passed away. He was an enormous part of baseball in the region, serving as a manager in the Mets’ minor league system and for the Long Island Ducks. Before he coached, Carter hit 324 home runs, 89 as a Met. He was at the core of the 1986 World Series Championship team. More importantly, Carter was known for his intensity and deep love of the game.
Both Berra and Carter were excellent catchers and excellent hitters, as well as team players. Their importance to the Mets wasn’t merely on-field, though. Both Carter and Berra are regarded as legends by the fans for their presence during formative times for the team. Just as Carter managed in the minor league system, Berra’s most important contributions to the Mets were as a coach and later a manager. In addition, both were active philanthropists after leaving the diamond.
Yogi Berra and Gary Carter weren’t the sole keys to victory on the field when they were Mets, but their presence had long and persistent effects on the Mets organization. Both men had Hall of Fame careers. Even if you can’t justify retiring #8 for Yogi’s brief tenure as a manager, or for Gary’s short but successful Mets career, numbers need not be retired only for on-field accomplishments. Yogi Berra and Gary Carter are two great men, two great hitters, catchers, coaches, and 8s. It’s time for the Mets to acknowledge their contributions not just on the field but to the brand and public image of the Mets.
AJ Pierzynski is a double-edged sword (Game 152 Preview) September 23, 2015
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Sports.Tags: Braves, Mets
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Williams Perez starts tonight against Bartolo Colon in a game that, for the Mets, isn’t must-win. Still, it’s a game the Mets want to win to push their magic number (currently Wally Backman) down in order to clinch before the Nationals come to town.
ASIDE: The Mets’ magic number is 6. Winning tonight pushes it down to 5, meaning that the Mets could clinch just in time by going 3-1 against the Reds and 2-1 against the Phillies, even if the Orioles lose both remaining games to the Nationals. We can’t count on Washington losing to the Phillies, the Reds, or the Braves, so it’s imperative that the Mets force that number into 1967 Sandy Alomar territory.
With rookie catcher Christian Bethancourt out with a thumb injury, A.J. Pierzynski will catch Perez tonight. Pierzynski has been hard on Bartolo Colon this year – 5 singles in 12 plate appearances – compared to his career numbers against Colon (.271/.317/.4o7). Shortstop Andrelton Simmons has also brutalized Bart this year, 7-10 with a triple and two doubles for a .700/.727/1.100 slash line (and a career .550/.571/.750 line).
Pierzynski, though, hasn’t been Perez’s best batterymate. Perez has a season ERA of 5.16, but 5.26 in 66 innings with Pierzynski. With A.J. behind the plate, Perez allowed 3 runs to the Mets in a 6-inning no-decision on the way to a September 12 loss.
Despite Arodys Vizcaino‘s performance last night, the Mets can continue to beat up on the bullpen. Their best bet tonight is to wear Perez out as quickly as possible and get Fredi Gonzalez to go to his pen early.
How improbable is a division win for the Mets? September 22, 2015
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Sports.Tags: Mets, Nationals, playoffs
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Following a brilliant, but short, start behind Jonathon Niese, the Mets won a 4-0 game against the Braves last night. Terry Collins made some of us hold our breath, lifting Niese after only 88 scoreless pitches, but went straight to the lights-out portion of the bullpen. Addison Reed worked for a few minutes, followed up by Tyler Clippard returning after a five-day layoff. Clippard allowed a single to Pedro Ciriaco and then threw two wild pitches to allow Ciriaco to third, but nonetheless stranded him to hold the 4-0 lead. Since every win counts, Terry brought in Jeurys Familia to close the game.
Last night’s win pushed the Mets’ magic number down into Ed Kranepool territory. It makes sense that Collins is managing this as a must-win series, for two reasons. He obviously lacks some confidence in the Hansel Robles – Bobby Parnell – Eric O’Flaherty portion of the bullpen, but he also wants to have the division clinched before Washington comes to town.
If we sweep Atlanta, then even if Washington doesn’t lose a game, our magic number drops to 5. From there, taking 3 from a four-game series against the Reds and 2 of 3 from a terrible Phillies team clinches the division. Giving up a game to Atlanta means having to sweep the Reds or Phillies instead, or relying on another team to help us, to clinch before the Nationals arrive. Since the end of the Mets series, the Nationals have scored 57 runs and allowed only 28 in 7 games against the Marlins and 3 against the Phillies.
Just one loss to Baltimore gives the Mets significant breathing room, because the Nationals play Philadelphia 3 times, the Reds once, and Atlanta three times before they meet the Mets. A team with some momentum could easily take those 7 games. A number of different possibilities exist to get a loss there:
- The Sunday (the 27th) 1:35 PM game against the Phillies, following a 4:05 Saturday start
- The one-day visit to Cincinnati (Monday the 28th) in between Philadelphia and Atlanta
- The Atlanta series, where a few solid players combined with no remaining off-days might push Washington over the edge
Again, it’s incumbent on the Mets to win their remaining series. One more from Atlanta, 3 from the Reds, and 2 from the Phillies mean Washington only needs to drop one game some time between now and the end of the season for the Mets to win the divsion. This is looking promising.
Two ends of the relief continuum September 21, 2015
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Sports.Tags: bullpen usage, saves, weird lines
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The Royals’ Danny Duffy nailed a three-inning save against the Tigers on the 20th. Now, it’s called a three-inning save, but Duffy did something about two to three pitchers do each year – he actually pitched four innings in relief. Recently moved to the pen, Duffy was still in shape to pitch four innings, allowing two hits and no runs while striking out six in relief of starter Kris Medlen. This year, only the Rays’ Matt Andriese has joined Duffy in the four-inning save club.
Four seems to be a soft limit under normal circumstances. There’s a handful of exceptions – Dick Hall recorded an eight-inning save in 1961, and 1920 was weird – but in recent memory, the longest save was a seven-inning effort by Joaquin Benoit in relief of Aaron Myette (who was ejected after four pitches and started the following day as well) and winning pitcher Todd Van Poppel. Ignoring Benoit, and Madison Bumgarner‘s brilliant five-inning save in the last game of the 2014 World Series, the last time a pitcher went 5 innings in a save was Blas Minor saving a game for the Pirates against the Mets in 1993.
On the other end of the spectrum, Huston Street recorded his 38th save for the Angels against the Twins on the 19th. He was called in to pitch only the last third of an inning – why would Mike Scioscia do that? Well, because Street had recorded his 37th save in a full inning pitched earlier that day in a 12-inning win. The Angels had used four other relievers to get to Street, and Los Angeles pitcher Garrett Anderson was crumbling in the ninth inning of game 2, so Scioscia waved for his closer. That doesn’t happen often; Jason Motte, Josh Collmenter, and Mark Lowe have all recorded saves on “negative” rest this year, but never two saves in one day. Jenrry Mejia came close on May 25 of last year, but as always, he was a disappointment; he saved game 2 after winning game 1. Joe Smith is the most recent one: he recorded saves 8 and 9 on July 1 of 2014, also for the Angels.
Mets Game 150 Quick Preview September 21, 2015
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Sports.Tags: Braves, Jonathon Niese, Mets, preview, Shelby Miller
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Jonathon Niese has started three games against Atlanta this year, and in two of the three, he’s allowed unearned runs. His ERA in three games against Atlanta this year is 2.03, but his runs per 9 is 3.57. With last night’s defensive struggles in mind, and Niese’s difficulties, Terry Collins needs to be especially mindful of having a strong defense behind Jonathon tonight.
Gary Carter and Quackerjack
Meanwhile, Shelby Miller is on a skid – the Braves have lost both of his starts against the Mets this year, and Miller has put up a 4.38 ERA in his two starts against New York. Miller has an 8.36 ERA in three September starts, all losses, with a horrific .408 batting average on balls in play. Besides the defense, though, he’s putting up a .414 OBP-against and a 1.71 K/BB control ratio (2.00 if you remove a single intentional walk). Those numbers are a bit inflated because Miller faced a blistering Mets squad on September 10 and the Blue Jays on the 16th; though he may have a bad time, this is not a pitcher who the Mets should look past, particularly with Yoenis Cespedes still recovering from the slump he broke out of last year.
With the magic number stuck at Gary Carter‘s 8, this is a crucial series for the Mets. The Braves have been vile this year, and even if the Nationals go 2-1 against the Orioles, the Mets can push the magic number down to 5 by the end of this series with just 2 wins against the Braves. That means splitting a series with the Reds puts it at 3, even if the Nationals sweep the Phillies, giving the Mets a chance to either put it away by sweeping the Phillies themselves (clinching by October 1) or, if they win 2, coming into the season-ending series against Washington needing only to avoid a sweep. Again, that’s assuming the Nationals don’t help us out at all, taking 2 against the Orioles, sweeping the Phillies, winning their single game against the Reds, and sweeping the Braves.
I’m Still With 47 September 21, 2015
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Sports.Tags: #imwith47, gratuitous Hansel Robles, Mets, Subway Series, Yankees
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Photo: slgckgc on Flickr
Hansel Robles took the loss last night on an ugly line – 2/3 of an inning pitched, 5 runs on 3 hits, a walk, and a wild pitch. It was a tough way to lose – the story of the game was Matt Harvey leaving after five shutout innings of one-hit baseball and, so the narrative goes, Robles coming in to crap it up. I’d like to suggest that it’s not entirely fair to throw this all on Robles.
Robles’ first batter was Jacoby Ellsbury, who reached on a throwing error by second baseman Daniel Murphy. His second batter was Brett Gardner, who reached on a fielder’s choice. Ellsbury was safe on the fielder’s choice due to a catching error by David Wright. Let’s keep track of that – although the official scorer considers Gardner to be Robles’ only earned run, Gardner should have grounded out.
At that point, Carlos Beltran hit a double, which should have been a completely innocuous hit with no one on. Brian McCann struck out – inning over, in a parallel universe where Juan Uribe hadn’t suffered an injury coming out of the game (or where Wilmer Flores or Kelly Johnson comes in to play second, rather than Murphy). Even allowing for Gardner to reach safely and Beltran to bat him home, that gets followed up by a wild pitch with Greg Bird at the plate, followed by walking Bird, and a swinging strikeout of Chase Headley. Worst case scenario, Robles gives up the tying run.
From there, it’s a totally different ballgame – Sean Gilmartin or Addison Reed comes in to at worst a tied game in the 7th, followed up by a chance for Tyler Clippard or Reed to take the eighth and Jeurys Familia closing to the strains of “Danza Kuduro” in the ninth. Don’t get me wrong – Collins has made a lot of excellent moves this season. Last night’s sixth was a comedy of (literally) errors, but a few other moves made it look like Collins had decided the game was already out of hand by the seventh.
Sometimes the bullpen just needs some work (Game 145 recap) September 16, 2015
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Sports.Tags: bullpen usage, Marlins, Mets
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Photo: Keith Allison from Hanover, MD
Last night’s loss to Tom Koehler of the Marlins was tough for Jacob deGrom – not in the sense of tough losses, but because two big innings hurt deGrom so much.
Jacob twice allowed 3 runs in an inning. Using the Baseball Reference play index, I dug up a couple of other times that’s happened – once earlier this year against the Marlins, once in April against Nationals, and once in June of last year against the Cardinals. Jacob just usually has a better handle on the offense than that.
Mike Dunn‘s lights-out seventh inning – Koehler allowed two walks, but Dunn struck out Curtis Granderson, Yoenis Cespedes, and Daniel Murphy in order – took away some momentum. An unfortunate wild pitch by Eric Goeddel to put Miguel Rojas in position to score off a Christian Yelich groundout with Eric O’Flaherty at the plate seemed to put the game out of reach for the Mets, despite a nice showing by Michael Conforto against Koehler and Bryan Morris (2 for 3 with a walk, one strikeout). Dee Gordon is unfortunately unstoppable.
Bobby Parnell acquitted himself well, and I appreciated Terry’s opportunity for Dario Alvarez. Although the game wasn’t out of hand as early as Terry went to the second string bullpen guys, I’m glad to see Parnell getting opportunities, and Dario Alvarez being used in this situation. O’Flaherty had been on ice since September 4, but pitched well, despite allowing a single (to Gordon) and an intentional walk.
Hopefully, that’s out of our system now.
World’s Worst Mets Preview, Game 145 vs Miami September 15, 2015
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Sports.Tags: #imwith47, gratuitous Hansel Robles, Marlins, Mets, preview, Tom Koehler
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Jacob deGrom at bat. Photo: Arturo Pardavila III
Last night’s win against the Marlins of Miami had several positives:
- The triumphant return of Hansel Robles
- A baserunning error by Juan Lagares that in the end was still not that big a deal
- Kyle Barraclough allowing his second earned run of the season, causing his ERA to grow to 0.96. You heard what I said. ERAs can grow to .96.
Several indicators tonight point toward the positives continuing. With a magic number of 10, the Mets are starting Jacob deGrom against Stony Brook alum Tom Koehler. Since August 1, Koehler has a 5.48 ERA; over his last five games, that drops to 5.34 with a 1-3 record. That is, however, working with a pretty nasty .345 batting average on balls in play. His season BAbip is .276, which indicates that the defense behind him may be lacking.
Mets have hit Koehler reasonably well:
| Name | PA | AB | H | HR | SO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Nieuwenhuis | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | .400 | .625 | 1.200 |
| Travis d’Arnaud | 16 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 1 | .417 | .563 | .583 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | 1.167 |
| Kevin Plawecki | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 |
| Ruben Tejada | 27 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 1 | .318 | .423 | .500 |
| Curtis Granderson | 23 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 5 | .211 | .348 | .211 |
| David Wright | 27 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 6 | .250 | .333 | .375 |
| Lucas Duda | 30 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 6 | .125 | .300 | .208 |
| Daniel Murphy | 30 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 2 | .222 | .300 | .333 |
| Wilmer Flores | 11 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | .273 | .273 | .455 |
| Juan Lagares | 23 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 2 | .261 | .261 | .348 |
| Michael Cuddyer | 8 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .250 | .250 | .375 |
| Jacob deGrom | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | .143 | .250 | .143 |
| Eric Young | 14 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .083 | .214 | .167 |
| Kelly Johnson | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | .200 | .200 | .200 |
| Michael Conforto | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .200 | .200 | .800 |
| Anthony Recker | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Dilson Herrera | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Juan Uribe | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Eric Campbell | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Total | 275 | 242 | 53 | 3 | 47 | .219 | .308 | .347 |
If Terry wanted to start a lineup based on those stats, we’d have an outfield made up of Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Yoenis Cespedes, and Curtis Granderson; Lucas Duda at first, Ruben Tejada at short, Daniel Murphy at second, David Wright at third, and Travis d’Arnaud catching. (Aside from starting Kirk rather than Michael Conforto, that’s pretty much our standard lineup anyway.) Since Kirk got the start on Sunday, starting him again so soon, and leaving Conforto on the bench, might be a suspect move, but there’s quite a bit to be said for the strong bench that gives Terry a left-handed option (in Conforto) and a right-handed option (Juan Uribe) who both have some pop.
Marlins closer A.J. Ramos last pitched on the 12th; his last blown save was September 4, and he hasn’t allowed a run since. The overall Marlins bullpen has a 3.40 ERA, but performs slightly worse in high-leverage situations than in other situations; the Marlins as a team have a 5.19 ERA against the Mets this year.
This is a game where a few runs early on will make a big difference for the Mets, and as long as they leverage their high OBP against Koehler, they can keep pushing the magic number down.
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