The Understudies (Game 156 Recap) September 28, 2015
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Sports.Tags: Mets, Recap
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Saturday night, the Mets clinched the National League East with a defeat of the Cincinnati Reds. Following that win, the Mets played a spring training game in which Jacob deGrom pitched 6 innings and went 2 for 3 and reached on an error. deGrom was relieved by Eric Goeddel, Sean Gilmartin, and Bobby Parnell, who gave up a combined 2 hits and 1 walk. The pitching was helped along by strong hitters, who were in turn helped along by errors from Ivan De Jesus and Joey Votto. De Jesus was visibly uncomfortable in only his 14th Major League start in the outfield.
Kelly Johnson played his first Major League game at shortstop. Johnson had last played a single game at short in 2005 for Richmond (now Gwinnett), the Braves’ AAA affiliate; he played 91 games at shortstop in 2003’s AA campaign. Johnson committed an error in the 9th but otherwise acquitted himself admirably.
Anthony Recker made his first start at first base for the Mets. Recker had previously started at first as a Cub in 2012. Despite doing a goofy-looking Arabesque to make a high catch, he played the schmoe position with grace and aplomb.
Dilson Herrera, though not out of position, made his first start since June. Besides turning a double play and making 5 assists, Dilson also hit a home run and went 3-4 with a walk.
One interesting player who did not get a chance to perform as the understudy was Jonathon Niese. Niese has been officially moved to the bullpen for the playoffs, and it’s likely that Bartolo Colon will join him. Colon will, however, make another scheduled start Tuesday.
The Mets’ Magic Number is Alex Cora (Game 154 Preview) September 25, 2015
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Sports.Tags: Alex Cora, Mets, Reds
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Alex Cora
With a win over Josh Smith‘s Reds and a Nationals loss to the Orioles, the Mets have pushed their magic number to clinch the division down to 3 (Alex Cora). The Mets are duly thankful to Matt Wieters for bringing Steve Pearce home in the late innings to give the Os the lead, and to Darren O’Day for nailing down the save.
Even assuming the Nats don’t lose another game, the Mets can now clinch in a variety of scenarios:
- Sweep the wretched Cincinnati team for their remaining 3 games.
- Give 1 to Cincinnati, take 1 from Philadelphia.
- Lose two to the Reds, simply win the series against Philadelphia.
- Lose the next three to the Reds, sweep Philadelphia.
In other news, the Dodgers lead the Mets for home field advantage in their series, assuming both clinch their divisions. The Dodgers are 2 games ahead of the Mets with a Dodgers magic number of 9. Assuming the Mets give up 1 game to Cincinnati, 1 to Philly and 1 to the Nationals, that means the Dodgers have to win six of their final 10 games to clinch home field advantage. The Mets own the head-to-head tiebreaker 4-3.
Noah Syndergaard starts for the Mets in a hitter’s park. Watch Noah’s control numbers – he’s thrown 73 strikeouts to 15 unintentional walks since the All Star Break. Don’t be alarmed if he gives up a few runs, particularly with 2016 American League All Star Designated Hitter Daniel Murphy starting at second base. Noah’s had a solid .273 BAbip, so he may give up a few tonight. Ruben Tejada is starting at shortstop. Ruben has been a sleeper in September, hitting .390/.457/.537 since September 1st in 46 plate appearances, albeit on a .455 BAbip.
Anthony DeSclafani starts for the Reds. In his last five starts, he’s 2-2 with a 2.97 ERA and an 8.0 KBB, despite a .349 BAbip. DeSclafani, like Tejada, is a dangerously unsung part of the team and it’s imperative that our hitters get to him early. #4 hitter Jay Bruce is hitting .229 on the season.
It’s time for the Mets to retire #8. September 23, 2015
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Gary Carter, Mets, Retire 8, Yogi Berra
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Yogi Berra has passed away. In his 90 years, he served as a player and coach, a Navy seaman at Normandy, a source of lighthearted comedy, and an inspiration to many young players and fans. Although he famously didn’t say everything he said, Yogi is a memorable character who will never be forgotten.
Yogi and his fellow #8, Gary Carter, have a lot in common. They are both remembered for accomplishments with other teams. Yogi’s #8 was retired by the Yankees in 1972, and he was memorialized in the Broadway play “Bronx Bombers.” Meanwhile, Carter is in Cooperstown as an Expo, despite his greatest success coming as a Met.
It’s been three years since Gary Carter passed away. He was an enormous part of baseball in the region, serving as a manager in the Mets’ minor league system and for the Long Island Ducks. Before he coached, Carter hit 324 home runs, 89 as a Met. He was at the core of the 1986 World Series Championship team. More importantly, Carter was known for his intensity and deep love of the game.
Both Berra and Carter were excellent catchers and excellent hitters, as well as team players. Their importance to the Mets wasn’t merely on-field, though. Both Carter and Berra are regarded as legends by the fans for their presence during formative times for the team. Just as Carter managed in the minor league system, Berra’s most important contributions to the Mets were as a coach and later a manager. In addition, both were active philanthropists after leaving the diamond.
Yogi Berra and Gary Carter weren’t the sole keys to victory on the field when they were Mets, but their presence had long and persistent effects on the Mets organization. Both men had Hall of Fame careers. Even if you can’t justify retiring #8 for Yogi’s brief tenure as a manager, or for Gary’s short but successful Mets career, numbers need not be retired only for on-field accomplishments. Yogi Berra and Gary Carter are two great men, two great hitters, catchers, coaches, and 8s. It’s time for the Mets to acknowledge their contributions not just on the field but to the brand and public image of the Mets.
AJ Pierzynski is a double-edged sword (Game 152 Preview) September 23, 2015
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Sports.Tags: Braves, Mets
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Williams Perez starts tonight against Bartolo Colon in a game that, for the Mets, isn’t must-win. Still, it’s a game the Mets want to win to push their magic number (currently Wally Backman) down in order to clinch before the Nationals come to town.
ASIDE: The Mets’ magic number is 6. Winning tonight pushes it down to 5, meaning that the Mets could clinch just in time by going 3-1 against the Reds and 2-1 against the Phillies, even if the Orioles lose both remaining games to the Nationals. We can’t count on Washington losing to the Phillies, the Reds, or the Braves, so it’s imperative that the Mets force that number into 1967 Sandy Alomar territory.
With rookie catcher Christian Bethancourt out with a thumb injury, A.J. Pierzynski will catch Perez tonight. Pierzynski has been hard on Bartolo Colon this year – 5 singles in 12 plate appearances – compared to his career numbers against Colon (.271/.317/.4o7). Shortstop Andrelton Simmons has also brutalized Bart this year, 7-10 with a triple and two doubles for a .700/.727/1.100 slash line (and a career .550/.571/.750 line).
Pierzynski, though, hasn’t been Perez’s best batterymate. Perez has a season ERA of 5.16, but 5.26 in 66 innings with Pierzynski. With A.J. behind the plate, Perez allowed 3 runs to the Mets in a 6-inning no-decision on the way to a September 12 loss.
Despite Arodys Vizcaino‘s performance last night, the Mets can continue to beat up on the bullpen. Their best bet tonight is to wear Perez out as quickly as possible and get Fredi Gonzalez to go to his pen early.
How improbable is a division win for the Mets? September 22, 2015
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Sports.Tags: Mets, Nationals, playoffs
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Following a brilliant, but short, start behind Jonathon Niese, the Mets won a 4-0 game against the Braves last night. Terry Collins made some of us hold our breath, lifting Niese after only 88 scoreless pitches, but went straight to the lights-out portion of the bullpen. Addison Reed worked for a few minutes, followed up by Tyler Clippard returning after a five-day layoff. Clippard allowed a single to Pedro Ciriaco and then threw two wild pitches to allow Ciriaco to third, but nonetheless stranded him to hold the 4-0 lead. Since every win counts, Terry brought in Jeurys Familia to close the game.
Last night’s win pushed the Mets’ magic number down into Ed Kranepool territory. It makes sense that Collins is managing this as a must-win series, for two reasons. He obviously lacks some confidence in the Hansel Robles – Bobby Parnell – Eric O’Flaherty portion of the bullpen, but he also wants to have the division clinched before Washington comes to town.
If we sweep Atlanta, then even if Washington doesn’t lose a game, our magic number drops to 5. From there, taking 3 from a four-game series against the Reds and 2 of 3 from a terrible Phillies team clinches the division. Giving up a game to Atlanta means having to sweep the Reds or Phillies instead, or relying on another team to help us, to clinch before the Nationals arrive. Since the end of the Mets series, the Nationals have scored 57 runs and allowed only 28 in 7 games against the Marlins and 3 against the Phillies.
Just one loss to Baltimore gives the Mets significant breathing room, because the Nationals play Philadelphia 3 times, the Reds once, and Atlanta three times before they meet the Mets. A team with some momentum could easily take those 7 games. A number of different possibilities exist to get a loss there:
- The Sunday (the 27th) 1:35 PM game against the Phillies, following a 4:05 Saturday start
- The one-day visit to Cincinnati (Monday the 28th) in between Philadelphia and Atlanta
- The Atlanta series, where a few solid players combined with no remaining off-days might push Washington over the edge
Again, it’s incumbent on the Mets to win their remaining series. One more from Atlanta, 3 from the Reds, and 2 from the Phillies mean Washington only needs to drop one game some time between now and the end of the season for the Mets to win the divsion. This is looking promising.
Mets Game 150 Quick Preview September 21, 2015
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Sports.Tags: Braves, Jonathon Niese, Mets, preview, Shelby Miller
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Jonathon Niese has started three games against Atlanta this year, and in two of the three, he’s allowed unearned runs. His ERA in three games against Atlanta this year is 2.03, but his runs per 9 is 3.57. With last night’s defensive struggles in mind, and Niese’s difficulties, Terry Collins needs to be especially mindful of having a strong defense behind Jonathon tonight.
Gary Carter and Quackerjack
Meanwhile, Shelby Miller is on a skid – the Braves have lost both of his starts against the Mets this year, and Miller has put up a 4.38 ERA in his two starts against New York. Miller has an 8.36 ERA in three September starts, all losses, with a horrific .408 batting average on balls in play. Besides the defense, though, he’s putting up a .414 OBP-against and a 1.71 K/BB control ratio (2.00 if you remove a single intentional walk). Those numbers are a bit inflated because Miller faced a blistering Mets squad on September 10 and the Blue Jays on the 16th; though he may have a bad time, this is not a pitcher who the Mets should look past, particularly with Yoenis Cespedes still recovering from the slump he broke out of last year.
With the magic number stuck at Gary Carter‘s 8, this is a crucial series for the Mets. The Braves have been vile this year, and even if the Nationals go 2-1 against the Orioles, the Mets can push the magic number down to 5 by the end of this series with just 2 wins against the Braves. That means splitting a series with the Reds puts it at 3, even if the Nationals sweep the Phillies, giving the Mets a chance to either put it away by sweeping the Phillies themselves (clinching by October 1) or, if they win 2, coming into the season-ending series against Washington needing only to avoid a sweep. Again, that’s assuming the Nationals don’t help us out at all, taking 2 against the Orioles, sweeping the Phillies, winning their single game against the Reds, and sweeping the Braves.
I’m Still With 47 September 21, 2015
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Sports.Tags: #imwith47, gratuitous Hansel Robles, Mets, Subway Series, Yankees
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Photo: slgckgc on Flickr
Hansel Robles took the loss last night on an ugly line – 2/3 of an inning pitched, 5 runs on 3 hits, a walk, and a wild pitch. It was a tough way to lose – the story of the game was Matt Harvey leaving after five shutout innings of one-hit baseball and, so the narrative goes, Robles coming in to crap it up. I’d like to suggest that it’s not entirely fair to throw this all on Robles.
Robles’ first batter was Jacoby Ellsbury, who reached on a throwing error by second baseman Daniel Murphy. His second batter was Brett Gardner, who reached on a fielder’s choice. Ellsbury was safe on the fielder’s choice due to a catching error by David Wright. Let’s keep track of that – although the official scorer considers Gardner to be Robles’ only earned run, Gardner should have grounded out.
At that point, Carlos Beltran hit a double, which should have been a completely innocuous hit with no one on. Brian McCann struck out – inning over, in a parallel universe where Juan Uribe hadn’t suffered an injury coming out of the game (or where Wilmer Flores or Kelly Johnson comes in to play second, rather than Murphy). Even allowing for Gardner to reach safely and Beltran to bat him home, that gets followed up by a wild pitch with Greg Bird at the plate, followed by walking Bird, and a swinging strikeout of Chase Headley. Worst case scenario, Robles gives up the tying run.
From there, it’s a totally different ballgame – Sean Gilmartin or Addison Reed comes in to at worst a tied game in the 7th, followed up by a chance for Tyler Clippard or Reed to take the eighth and Jeurys Familia closing to the strains of “Danza Kuduro” in the ninth. Don’t get me wrong – Collins has made a lot of excellent moves this season. Last night’s sixth was a comedy of (literally) errors, but a few other moves made it look like Collins had decided the game was already out of hand by the seventh.
Sometimes the bullpen just needs some work (Game 145 recap) September 16, 2015
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Sports.Tags: bullpen usage, Marlins, Mets
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Photo: Keith Allison from Hanover, MD
Last night’s loss to Tom Koehler of the Marlins was tough for Jacob deGrom – not in the sense of tough losses, but because two big innings hurt deGrom so much.
Jacob twice allowed 3 runs in an inning. Using the Baseball Reference play index, I dug up a couple of other times that’s happened – once earlier this year against the Marlins, once in April against Nationals, and once in June of last year against the Cardinals. Jacob just usually has a better handle on the offense than that.
Mike Dunn‘s lights-out seventh inning – Koehler allowed two walks, but Dunn struck out Curtis Granderson, Yoenis Cespedes, and Daniel Murphy in order – took away some momentum. An unfortunate wild pitch by Eric Goeddel to put Miguel Rojas in position to score off a Christian Yelich groundout with Eric O’Flaherty at the plate seemed to put the game out of reach for the Mets, despite a nice showing by Michael Conforto against Koehler and Bryan Morris (2 for 3 with a walk, one strikeout). Dee Gordon is unfortunately unstoppable.
Bobby Parnell acquitted himself well, and I appreciated Terry’s opportunity for Dario Alvarez. Although the game wasn’t out of hand as early as Terry went to the second string bullpen guys, I’m glad to see Parnell getting opportunities, and Dario Alvarez being used in this situation. O’Flaherty had been on ice since September 4, but pitched well, despite allowing a single (to Gordon) and an intentional walk.
Hopefully, that’s out of our system now.
World’s Worst Mets Preview, Game 145 vs Miami September 15, 2015
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Sports.Tags: #imwith47, gratuitous Hansel Robles, Marlins, Mets, preview, Tom Koehler
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Jacob deGrom at bat. Photo: Arturo Pardavila III
Last night’s win against the Marlins of Miami had several positives:
- The triumphant return of Hansel Robles
- A baserunning error by Juan Lagares that in the end was still not that big a deal
- Kyle Barraclough allowing his second earned run of the season, causing his ERA to grow to 0.96. You heard what I said. ERAs can grow to .96.
Several indicators tonight point toward the positives continuing. With a magic number of 10, the Mets are starting Jacob deGrom against Stony Brook alum Tom Koehler. Since August 1, Koehler has a 5.48 ERA; over his last five games, that drops to 5.34 with a 1-3 record. That is, however, working with a pretty nasty .345 batting average on balls in play. His season BAbip is .276, which indicates that the defense behind him may be lacking.
Mets have hit Koehler reasonably well:
| Name | PA | AB | H | HR | SO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Nieuwenhuis | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | .400 | .625 | 1.200 |
| Travis d’Arnaud | 16 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 1 | .417 | .563 | .583 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .500 | .500 | 1.167 |
| Kevin Plawecki | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .500 | .500 | .500 |
| Ruben Tejada | 27 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 1 | .318 | .423 | .500 |
| Curtis Granderson | 23 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 5 | .211 | .348 | .211 |
| David Wright | 27 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 6 | .250 | .333 | .375 |
| Lucas Duda | 30 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 6 | .125 | .300 | .208 |
| Daniel Murphy | 30 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 2 | .222 | .300 | .333 |
| Wilmer Flores | 11 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | .273 | .273 | .455 |
| Juan Lagares | 23 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 2 | .261 | .261 | .348 |
| Michael Cuddyer | 8 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .250 | .250 | .375 |
| Jacob deGrom | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | .143 | .250 | .143 |
| Eric Young | 14 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .083 | .214 | .167 |
| Kelly Johnson | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | .200 | .200 | .200 |
| Michael Conforto | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .200 | .200 | .800 |
| Anthony Recker | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Dilson Herrera | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Juan Uribe | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Eric Campbell | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Total | 275 | 242 | 53 | 3 | 47 | .219 | .308 | .347 |
If Terry wanted to start a lineup based on those stats, we’d have an outfield made up of Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Yoenis Cespedes, and Curtis Granderson; Lucas Duda at first, Ruben Tejada at short, Daniel Murphy at second, David Wright at third, and Travis d’Arnaud catching. (Aside from starting Kirk rather than Michael Conforto, that’s pretty much our standard lineup anyway.) Since Kirk got the start on Sunday, starting him again so soon, and leaving Conforto on the bench, might be a suspect move, but there’s quite a bit to be said for the strong bench that gives Terry a left-handed option (in Conforto) and a right-handed option (Juan Uribe) who both have some pop.
Marlins closer A.J. Ramos last pitched on the 12th; his last blown save was September 4, and he hasn’t allowed a run since. The overall Marlins bullpen has a 3.40 ERA, but performs slightly worse in high-leverage situations than in other situations; the Marlins as a team have a 5.19 ERA against the Mets this year.
This is a game where a few runs early on will make a big difference for the Mets, and as long as they leverage their high OBP against Koehler, they can keep pushing the magic number down.
Mets Game 143 Recap – 2-out RBIs a-go-go! September 14, 2015
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Sports.Tags: 2-out RBIs, Braves, Mets, RBIs
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After yesterday afternoon’s roller coaster, the Mets are at magic number 11. That’s after a – frankly – ridiculous outing where the Mets were actually at a prior 0% win probability. Peter Moylan‘s strikeout of Kevin Plawecki in the ninth inning, 3 runs up, actually moved the win probability to 100% for the Braves, meaning (roughly) that from that state there was no expectation that the Mets would win the game. Never one to listen to statistics, Juan Lagares doubled, Curtis Granderson walked, and Daniel Murphy promptly tied the game with a home run. That’s three two-out RBIs. Later on, Kirk Nieuwenhuis scored from 3rd when Plawecki reached on an error with two outs. Lagares walked, and then Granderson walked to force in Ruben Tejada, and Murphy walked to force Plawecki home. Though Kevin didn’t get an RBI for his play Granderson and Murphy each notched a 2-out RBI.
For the Braves’ part, Andrelton Simmons and Adonis Garcia each notched an RBI with two outs as well.
There’s an underlying mythology that Mets fans hold – the Mets are killer in the clutch. They play better with 2 outs than any other team. For the most part, that’s actually true – the Mets lead the league in 2-out RBIs in 2015 with 266. What’s more, they’re fourth-best in the league on defense, with only 174 2-out RBIs allowed this year. They’re in the upper half for go-aheads with 2 outs, as well, with 47 (behind the Yankees’ 58 and nine other teams).
One side note: the Mets have 13 walks with the bases loaded – that is, run-scoring walks. Granderson leads the team with 5. Of those 13, 12 – Twelve! – came with two outs. Other teams have 194 walks with the bases loaded, and 102 of them came with two outs. After Granderson’s five, seven players (Jose Bautista, Yonder Alonso, Michael Brantley, Marcel Ozuna, Francisco Lindor, Josh Donaldson, and Logan Forsythe) are tied with 3. All three of Donaldson and Lindor’s RBI walks came with two outs; take note, there are two Blue Jays in that list. The Blue Jays have five walks with the bases loaded and two outs.
That’s right. The Blue Jays, combined, have as many of those as Curtis Granderson, and Granderson’s have all come since August 8. The Mets’ team OBP had hovered between .290 and .311 for the first few months of the season, but ballooned to .337 in August and .378 in twelve September games. The Mets have been setting the table and when you play the game right, these oportunities present themselves.
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