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Friday Polling Numbers for the Canadian election September 12, 2008

Two sets of numbers from NoDice.ca plus two sets from the Globe and Mail.

A Strategic Counsel poll tracks 45 “key” ridings – 20 are in Ontario, 15 in Quebec and 10 in B.C.; 17 ridings won by Liberals, 16 by Conservatives, 8 by the Bloc and 4 by the NDP. Surveys are conducted daily and use 3-day running tallies. The Globe and Mail sums up the poll:

The Conservatives have still gained ground since the last election in 45 ridings where the races were close, but their opponents have rebounded a little since the campaign for the Oct. 14 election officially opened on the weekend.

However, the poll may overestimate NDP and Green support, since 60% see large differences between the major parties and may therefore change their support to the Tories or (more likely) the Grits on Election Day.

NoDice.ca has two sets of polling numbers from this week, averaging the percentage support for each party to 8.5% BQ, 37.5% Conservative, 8.5% Green, 25% Liberal and 10% NDP. Monday’s seat projection, which of course doesn’t reflect any of this week’s advancements, predicts that the seats will break down at 143 Conservative, 94 Liberal, 29 NDP, 41 BQ, and 2 “other”.

Meanwhile, Robert Silver somewhat facetiously runs recent polling numbers through a projector and gets a somewhat different result: 125 Conservative, 122 Liberal , 45 Bloc Quebecois, 16 NDP. Will it be that close? We’ll have to wait and see.