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Syndergaard and Utley (Mets Game 48 Preview) May 28, 2016

Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.
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Noah Syndergaard; Photo: Arturo Pardavila III

Noah Syndergaard; Photo: Arturo Pardavila III

Tonight, Noah Syndergaard takes the mound against the Dodgers’ Kenta Maeda. The Mets enter tonight’s game 3-2 on the season against the Dodgers, following a near miss by normally lights-out closer Jeurys Familia.

The Dodgers’ Chase Utley has been, frankly, ridiculous this year. Utley has been producing in key positions for the Dodgers. After last year’s disappointing .212/.286/.343 season, Utley has raised his batting average to .292 and added almost a full .100 to his on-base percentage (chiefly by walking more). Utley is dangerous on base, scoring a run over 40% of the time. Though there’s speculation that Syndergaard will murder Utley, the Mets seem to have made their peace with him and are letting the fans exact his punishment – although, frankly, he’s batting in so many runs that I wish they’d just hit him instead of giving him the chance to clear the bases.

However, Syndergaard has had his way with Utley. In 8 plate appearances, Utley has only gotten on base once – a single. Noah has been similarly effective against Howie Kendrick (1-11), Yasmani Grandal (1-7), and Yasiel Puig (1-6). On the other side, former Met and current troll doll Justin Turner has been successful (2-6, both doubles). Enrique Hernandez is 1-1 with two walks, one intentional.

As for Maeda, Mets fans may recall him as the dude Noah hit two home runs off of a few weeks ago. Other Mets haven’t been as effective: Michael Conforto, Neil Walker, and Asdrubal Cabrera are each 1-3, but no one else has hit him. This one is going to require Syndergaard to pitch effectively and our batters to leave it on the field. Syndergaard’s numbers versus current Dodgers are below.

 

Name PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Howie Kendrick 11 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .091 .091 .091 .182
Adrian Gonzalez 10 9 2 0 0 1 1 1 4 .222 .300 .556 .856
Yasmani Grandal 8 7 1 0 0 1 1 1 3 .143 .250 .571 .821
Corey Seager 8 8 2 0 0 1 1 0 4 .250 .250 .625 .875
Chase Utley 8 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .125 .125 .125 .250
Justin Turner 7 6 2 2 0 0 0 1 2 .333 .429 .667 1.095
Carl Crawford 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .167 .167 .167 .333
Joc Pederson 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 .000 .167 .000 .167
Yasiel Puig 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .167 .167 .167 .333
Enrique Hernandez 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000
Clayton Kershaw 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000
Kenta Maeda 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000
Trayce Thompson 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
Total 78 72 12 2 0 3 3 6 20 .167 .231 .319 .550
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/28/2016.

Give Noah a fair shake. September 12, 2015

Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Sports.
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Noah Syndergaard is set to start tonight’s game in Atlanta. Syndergaard has had a tough year on the road: he’s 7-1 with a 2.15 ERA in 10 starts at Citi Field but 1-5 with a 4.91 ERA in 10 road starts. However, the offense hasn’t been good on the road, and there’s an argument that the defense hasn’t been supportive on the road.

In Noah’s road starts, the team (not Noah, necessarily) has beaten the Dodgers and Phillies, and lost to the Cubs, Pirates, Padres, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals, Rays, and Orioles. In his home starts, the Mets have won against the Brewers, Phillies, Blue Jays, Reds, Diamondbacks, Padres, Nationals, Rockies, and Red Sox; his only home loss is to the Giants. The road teams Noah has beaten have a combined record of 134-148; the teams he’s lost to on the road combine to 585-539. Meanwhile, his loss to the Giants at home was Chris Heston‘s no-hitter, and his wins came against the bottom-dwelling Red Sox, Reds, Rockies, and Phillies, and the fourth-place Padres, Brewers, and Braves, the balance coming against the Nationals (who he lost to on the road) and 3rd-place Diamondbacks (still below .500). It’s true that Noah isn’t as good at home as we’d like to pretend.

He isn’t as bad on the road as we think, either, though. Three of those road losses are to the ridiculous NL Central, including the Cubs, Pirates, and Cardinals. (The Cubs are in third place and still have more wins than the NL East-leading Mets.) He’s overall faced a tough schedule on the road and not received much help – 29 runs of support (that’s 1.2 below the league average) on the road, compared with 48 at home (over 2/3 of a run above the league average).

Credit Flickr user slgckgc

Credit Flickr user slgckgc

That corresponds to his 1-2 road record in August, bolstered by Yoenis Cespedes, Juan Uribe, and Kelly Johnson and receiving 4.67 runs per game of support . (He’s 3-0 at home in August.)

In addition, Noah’s batting average on balls in play (BAbip) at home is .240. The league average hovers around .290, meaning that more balls in play are hoovered up by the defense at home than would be expected. On the road, not so good – a Farnsworthian .364. Without a doubt, Noah has some issues – he more than doubles his home walk numbers on the road from 9 to 20 – but he’s gotten some very unlucky hits as well.

Finally, a piece of advice: Let Noah face no more than 18 batters. When facing batters for the first time, he holds them to a .288 on-base percentage, and pushes that down to .246 in the second appearance. That balloons to .333 when a batter sees him for the third time. With a strong and rested Mets bullpen, don’t be afraid to hook Syndergaard for long man Sean Gilmartin or lefty specialist Dario Alvarez. Make sure that if you leave him in, you have a strong defense behind him, and for heaven’s sake, help him out by producing some runs for him.