NL Cy Young: Heating up early May 31, 2010
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Baseball, baseball-reference.com, Cy Young, Dallas Braden, Mark Buehrle, Roy Halladay, Ubaldo Jimenez
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There’s considerable debate, following Roy Halladay‘s perfect game, as to whether he or Ubaldo Jimenez should be considered the top contender for the National League’s Cy Young Award. Of course, it’s way too early to make those sorts of decisions, but let’s take a look at some of the data quickly.
Jimenez is sitting at 3.7 Wins Above Replacement and 38 Runs Above Replacement in 10 starts:
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | IP | GS | R | Rrep | Rdef | aLI | RAR | WAR | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 26 | COL | NL | 71.1 | 10 | 7 | 45 | 0 | 1.0 | 38 | 3.7 | $1,250,000 |
| 5 Seasons | 577.2 | 93 | 241 | 362 | 0 | 1.0 | 121 | 12.2 | $2,392,000 | |||
Halladay has considerably less, with 22 RAR and 2.4 WAR:
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | IP | GS | R | Rrep | Rdef | aLI | RAR | WAR | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 33 | PHI | NL | 86.0 | 11 | 23 | 45 | 3 | 1.0 | 22 | 2.4 | $15,750,000 |
| 13 Seasons | 2132.2 | 298 | 893 | 1407 | 19 | 1.0 | 514 | 49.8 | $88,991,666 | |||
Of course, 10 or 11 starts is far too small a sample to draw conclusions from this early in the season. Halladay has a perfect game; Jimenez has a no-hitter. Still, there’s no reason to believe that a perfect game, in and of itself, is enough to get Doc a Cy Young Award. After all, Mark Buehrle didn’t win the Cy last year, and Dallas Braden isn’t even in contention.
If both players keep pitching at or near this level, Halladay becomes a realistic contender, because at that point his marginal contribution may make the difference between whether the Phillies make the playoffs or not. As it stands right now, the NL East is entirely too volatile to make that decision.
(Incidentally, I love Baseball-Reference.com’s new stat sharing and player link tools!)
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