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June 15 Wins Above Expectation June 16, 2010

Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.
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Wins Above Expectation are a statistic determined using team wins and the Pythagorean expectation, which is in turn determined using runs scored by and against each team. The Pythagorean expectation is the proportion of runs scored squared to runs scored squared plus runs against squared. It’s interpreted as an expected winning percentage.

Wins Above Expectation (WAE) is then the difference between Wins and Expected Wins, which are simply the Pythagorean Expectation multiplied by Games played. It’s a useful measure because it can be interpreted as wins that are due to efficiency (in economic terms) or, more simply, play that’s some combination of smart, clutch, and non-wasteful. It rewards winning close games and penalizes teams that win lots of laughers but lose close games, since the big wins predict more games will be won when all those runs are spent winning only one game.

Using Baseball-Reference.com, I crunched the numbers for AL teams up to June 15. As usual, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim lead the league in WAE with 3.68, with Detroit’s 2.39 a close second,  but the Tampa Bay Rays are a surprising last with -1.96 WAE. Obviously, this early in the season it’s too soon to conclude anything based on this, but the complete data is behind the cut.

Team RS RA W pythwin WAE
BAL 211 342 18 17.92 0.08
BOS 359 308 38 38.02 -0.02
CHW 273 300 29 28.54 0.46
CLE 268 318 25 26.16 -1.16
DET 278 277 34 31.61 2.39
KCR 300 334 28 29.02 -1.02
LAA 316 332 36 32.32 3.68
MIN 304 248 37 38.43 -1.43
NYY 363 255 41 42.85 -1.85
OAK 270 283 33 31.45 1.55
SEA 226 300 24 23.53 0.47
TBR 343 240 41 42.96 -1.96
TEX 324 284 36 36.19 -0.19
TOR 313 294 35 35.06 -0.06
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