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Jeurys Familia earns the rare Condor Win May 28, 2016

Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.
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I thought the story of last night’s game would be Julio Urias, but I was wrong.

Photo: slgckgc on Flickr

Photo: slgckgc on Flickr

May 27 was the worst outing Jeurys Familia has had since 2012. He came into a non-save situation – four runs up, but he hadn’t worked in a few days – and promptly allowed singles to Adrian Gonzalez and Howie Kendrick before striking out Joc Pederson. Yasiel Puig singled, followed by Yasmani Grandal walking to force in a run. Trayce Thompson struck out, but Chase Utley squeaked a two-out double to clear the bases. With the game now tied, Familia struck out Corey Seager to end the inning. (Fortunately, Curtis Granderson picked him up with a home run.)

I’ve heard some people describing Jeurys’ win last night as a ‘vulture win,’ but I disagree. A vulture win is granted when a pitcher blows the save but wins the game anyway. Familia didn’t blow the save – he blew a non-save situation. That’s much bigger than a vulture win – it’s a condor win.

The lore around Familia has become that he’s a high-pressure worker – that he pitches well in save situations, but that he can’t manage to bring it home when he just comes in to stay busy. I’m not so sure that’s true.

First, this year’s numbers: Jeurys has had 16 save oppportunities in 2016, over which he’s had 60 plate appearances, held opposing batters to a .207/.233/.224 slash line, and walked 2 batters while striking out 12 for a 6.00 KBB. In 2015, there were only eight relievers (who pitched in 40 games or more and relieved 95% of their games) to keep a KBB above 6; that number will likely come down a bit, although Familia’s pitching style means it’s likely to stay above average. (A list of last year’s relievers sorted by KBB is here.) Meanwhile, in his 8 non-save situations this year, Jeurys has allowed a .371/.421/.486 slash line over 38 plate appearances with 9 strikeouts but 3 walks. Hm – not closer stuff, definitely, but keep in mind that Jeurys’ defense tends to help him out more in save situations. His BAbip in save situations this year has been .261 – below the league average, which hovers around .300, by a bit – but in non-saves it’s been considerably worse, at an even .500. This could indicate that the defense behind Jeurys plays a role in those results.

In fact, last year’s numbers bear out a significantly similar trend:

Split G PA AB R H HR BB SO SO/W BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip
in Sv Situ 49 199 185 12 37 5 12 55 4.58 .200 .247 .314 .561 .254
in non-Sv 27 109 100 4 22 1 7 31 4.43 .220 .284 .300 .584 .309
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/28/2016.

The results are similar, with a slight nudge upward in non-save situations, but Jeurys gets significantly ‘luckier’ with BAbip when he’s in for the save.

Julio Urias’ debut and a full Mets bullpen (Mets Game 47 Preview) May 27, 2016

Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.
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Urias in 2014 spring training. Photo: Dustin Nosler via Wikipedia.

Urias in 2014 spring training. Photo: Dustin Nosler via Wikipedia.

Friday night, the Mets host the Dodgers for the home portion of their season series. The teams split their early May series with wins for Mets starters Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard, Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen, and the Koufaxian Clayton Kershaw. The Mets will start Jacob deGrom against the debuting Julio Urias.

deGrom started against the Dodgers on May 10; he pitched seven innings, allowing two runs on 8 hits, 4 strikeouts, and no walks. He was lifted after 103 pitches, and a ninth-inning home run by Trayce Thompson off Hansel Robles won the game for Kenley Jansen. In two starts since, deGrom has had a confusing set of numbers – he’s held opponents to a .220 batting average and a .313 OBP, along with a luckier-than-average .233 BAbip, but allowed 7 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings pitched for a 5.56 ERA. Current Dodgers have hit deGrom fairly well; first baseman Adrian Gonzalez has hit a monstrous .375 against deGrom in 18 plate appearances, plus a walk for a .389 OBP; though he’s struck out 8 times, he’s hit two home runs for a .750 slugging average. In 14 plate appearances, Justin Turner (3B) has hit .357/.357/.571 with two doubles. Likely leadoff hitter Chase Utley (2B) is hitting .267/.353/.333, followed up by shortstop Corey Seager at .333/.333/.556. With Gonzalez, and then Turner, following up, there’s a huge chance (about 57%) that Gonzalez will come up with at least one man on base and 0 or 1 out. On the other hand, deGrom tends to strike out opposing hitters at an alarming KBB of 4.33 (13 Ks, 3 walks) the first run through the order. The second time through, the strikeouts stay high but the walks climb (2.00, 12K to 6 BB). In the 3rd, 4th, and 5th innings, though, deGrom’s ERAs are 1.29, 2.57, and 1.29; deGrom shows the confusing trend of having stronger batting-against stats but allowing more runs in the early innings. As long as he can get through that first run through the Dodgers infield, deGrom can serve as a strong bridge to the bullpen with Hansel Robles, Addison Reed, and Jeurys Familia.

Note that Familia is tied for second in the NL with 16 saves, behind only the Phillies’ Jeanmar Gomez.

The 19-year-old Urias is making his MLB debut. He’s been filthy at AAA this year, with a .780 WHIP, a 1.10 ERA and a 9.7 K9 in 41 innings pitched. Young pitchers have mixed success moving to the majors – you’ll always have your Clayton Buchholz types who take advantage of their unfamiliarity to opposing hitters, but you’ll also have young pitchers who need development to grow into their roles – so it’s tough to predict how Urias will do. When he was bumped from AA to AAA last season, for example, he started two games but allowed 9 runs in only 4 1/3 innings, leading to an unsightly 18.69 ERA. Mets fans can hope Urias has some difficulty adjusting tonight, considering the volume of the Citi Field crowd.

Dodgers numbers against deGrom are below:

Name PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP ▾ SLG OPS HBP
A.J. Ellis 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 .333 .600 .333 .933 0
Alex Wood 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0
Adrian Gonzalez 18 16 6 0 0 2 6 1 8 .375 .389 .750 1.139 0
Justin Turner 14 14 5 3 0 0 1 0 1 .357 .357 .571 .929 0
Chase Utley 17 15 4 1 0 0 0 2 3 .267 .353 .333 .686 0
Joc Pederson 12 9 1 1 0 0 0 3 2 .111 .333 .222 .556 0
Corey Seager 9 9 3 2 0 0 1 0 4 .333 .333 .556 .889 0
Yasmani Grandal 9 8 1 1 0 0 0 1 3 .125 .222 .250 .472 0
Yasiel Puig 9 9 2 0 0 1 1 0 3 .222 .222 .556 .778 0
Carl Crawford 11 9 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 .000 .182 .000 .182 0
Howie Kendrick 10 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .100 .100 .100 .200 0
Enrique Hernandez 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0
Clayton Kershaw 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0
Total 121 109 25 8 0 3 9 11 33 .229 .298 .385 .683 0
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/27/2016.