jump to navigation

Julio Urias’ debut and a full Mets bullpen (Mets Game 47 Preview) May 27, 2016

Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.
Tags: , , ,
add a comment
Urias in 2014 spring training. Photo: Dustin Nosler via Wikipedia.

Urias in 2014 spring training. Photo: Dustin Nosler via Wikipedia.

Friday night, the Mets host the Dodgers for the home portion of their season series. The teams split their early May series with wins for Mets starters Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard, Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen, and the Koufaxian Clayton Kershaw. The Mets will start Jacob deGrom against the debuting Julio Urias.

deGrom started against the Dodgers on May 10; he pitched seven innings, allowing two runs on 8 hits, 4 strikeouts, and no walks. He was lifted after 103 pitches, and a ninth-inning home run by Trayce Thompson off Hansel Robles won the game for Kenley Jansen. In two starts since, deGrom has had a confusing set of numbers – he’s held opponents to a .220 batting average and a .313 OBP, along with a luckier-than-average .233 BAbip, but allowed 7 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings pitched for a 5.56 ERA. Current Dodgers have hit deGrom fairly well; first baseman Adrian Gonzalez has hit a monstrous .375 against deGrom in 18 plate appearances, plus a walk for a .389 OBP; though he’s struck out 8 times, he’s hit two home runs for a .750 slugging average. In 14 plate appearances, Justin Turner (3B) has hit .357/.357/.571 with two doubles. Likely leadoff hitter Chase Utley (2B) is hitting .267/.353/.333, followed up by shortstop Corey Seager at .333/.333/.556. With Gonzalez, and then Turner, following up, there’s a huge chance (about 57%) that Gonzalez will come up with at least one man on base and 0 or 1 out. On the other hand, deGrom tends to strike out opposing hitters at an alarming KBB of 4.33 (13 Ks, 3 walks) the first run through the order. The second time through, the strikeouts stay high but the walks climb (2.00, 12K to 6 BB). In the 3rd, 4th, and 5th innings, though, deGrom’s ERAs are 1.29, 2.57, and 1.29; deGrom shows the confusing trend of having stronger batting-against stats but allowing more runs in the early innings. As long as he can get through that first run through the Dodgers infield, deGrom can serve as a strong bridge to the bullpen with Hansel Robles, Addison Reed, and Jeurys Familia.

Note that Familia is tied for second in the NL with 16 saves, behind only the Phillies’ Jeanmar Gomez.

The 19-year-old Urias is making his MLB debut. He’s been filthy at AAA this year, with a .780 WHIP, a 1.10 ERA and a 9.7 K9 in 41 innings pitched. Young pitchers have mixed success moving to the majors – you’ll always have your Clayton Buchholz types who take advantage of their unfamiliarity to opposing hitters, but you’ll also have young pitchers who need development to grow into their roles – so it’s tough to predict how Urias will do. When he was bumped from AA to AAA last season, for example, he started two games but allowed 9 runs in only 4 1/3 innings, leading to an unsightly 18.69 ERA. Mets fans can hope Urias has some difficulty adjusting tonight, considering the volume of the Citi Field crowd.

Dodgers numbers against deGrom are below:

Name PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP ▾ SLG OPS HBP
A.J. Ellis 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 .333 .600 .333 .933 0
Alex Wood 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0
Adrian Gonzalez 18 16 6 0 0 2 6 1 8 .375 .389 .750 1.139 0
Justin Turner 14 14 5 3 0 0 1 0 1 .357 .357 .571 .929 0
Chase Utley 17 15 4 1 0 0 0 2 3 .267 .353 .333 .686 0
Joc Pederson 12 9 1 1 0 0 0 3 2 .111 .333 .222 .556 0
Corey Seager 9 9 3 2 0 0 1 0 4 .333 .333 .556 .889 0
Yasmani Grandal 9 8 1 1 0 0 0 1 3 .125 .222 .250 .472 0
Yasiel Puig 9 9 2 0 0 1 1 0 3 .222 .222 .556 .778 0
Carl Crawford 11 9 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 .000 .182 .000 .182 0
Howie Kendrick 10 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .100 .100 .100 .200 0
Enrique Hernandez 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0
Clayton Kershaw 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0
Total 121 109 25 8 0 3 9 11 33 .229 .298 .385 .683 0
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/27/2016.

Bring On The Phils (Mets Game 3 Preview) April 8, 2016

Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.
Tags: , , ,
add a comment

Photo Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Larry Bowa becomes apoplectic over Hansel Robles. Photo Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

This afternoon, the Mets host the Phillies to open their season series. No love lost here: keep in mind, it was Philadelphia’s Cameron Rupp who future closer Hansel Robles was suspended for completely accidentally attempting to quick-bean. Robles was also accused of attempted murder when he executed his quick-pitch on Darin Ruff in August. Since the Phils and the Mets have never quite gotten along, this will probably turn ugly quickly. Rupp played in Wednesday’s game and Ruf has appeared in every game so far; expect Robles to get no end of chatter from the Philly bench this series.

Philadelphia is coming off three losses to Cincinnati. The season opener featured a loss by David Hernandez and a blown save by James Russel, spoiling an excellent start by Jeremy Hellickson (game score of 70). Dalier Hinojosa blew the save and took the loss on Wednesday, flushing an 8-strikeout, 1-run, 7-inning start by Aaron Nola down the drain (game score of 73). Thursday, starter Charlie Morton finally lost his own game, getting bounced after 5 runs in 3 2/3 innings. Hinojosa acquitted himself reasonably, pitching a two-hit 8th but giving up no runs. Rookie Daniel Stumpf walked two and allowed a home run before being hooked, leading him to the rare infinite ERA. Long man Brett Oberholtzer gave up one run in 3 1/3 innings.

The Philly bullpen is beat up. On a day game after a night game, and with Friday the third consecutive game day, it’s difficult to see Hinojosa pitching for the third consecutive day. Hernandez is fresh, but it’s not inconceivable we could see Stumpf in middle relief to try to shake out the yips. Jerad Eickhoff, who cannot spell his own name, will start Friday for Philadelphia. Eickoff pitched 51 innings in 8 games to a 2.65 ERA last year. He had a slightly lucky .257 BAbip with an 8.6 K9 and a 3.77 KBB. His work against the Mets is mixed. Michael Conforto has taken him to school (4-8 with a homer and a walk, despite two Ks); Yoenis Cespedes had a tougher time (1-6, 2 Ks).

The story of the game is that the Mets plan to start Jacob deGrom, who will leave immediately if his wife goes into labor. If that happens before the game, Bartolo Colon and Steven Matz are likely fill-in candidates. deGrom has had a tough time with the Phillies – though he’s 1-0 against them, he’s allowed a 4.41 ERA and a .313/.352/.463 line against them. His numbers against current Phillies are below:

Name PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP missG
Freddy Galvis 8 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 .625 .625 .625 1.250 0 0 0 0 1
Odubel Herrera 8 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 .250 .250 .250 .500 0 0 0 0 0
Ryan Howard 8 8 3 0 0 1 3 0 2 .375 .375 .750 1.125 0 0 0 0 0
Carlos Ruiz 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 0 0 0
Cesar Hernandez 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 .500 .750 .500 1.250 0 0 0 0 0
Maikel Franco 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
Andres Blanco 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
Cameron Rupp 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1.000 1.000 4.000 5.000 0 0 0 0 0
Total 41 38 13 0 0 2 4 3 9 .342 .390 .500 .890 0 0 0 0 1
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/7/2016.