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Do the Mets have it right against the Diamondbacks? August 7, 2016

Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.
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The Mets are idle on Monday but begin a homestand on Tuesday against the Arizona Diamondbacks. They’ll also see the San Diego Padres before heading to Arizona to face the Diamondbacks and play a four-game series against San Francisco and three against the Cardinals.

The Dbacks are notable as one of the most right-handed lineups in the majors. Arizona’s left-handed batters have made only 1149 plate appearances as of Sunday morning; for comparison, the Phillies have had 1896, Miami 1477, Washington 1881, and Atlanta a whopping 2386. Fortunately, the rotation is leaning toward some of our least effective starters against lefties.

Although Tuesday night starter Steven Matz is a southpaw, he takes a beating against lefties. He allows a .308 OBP to righties but a .348 OBP against left-handers. Wednesday night starter Bartolo Colon is about even (.298 OBP regardless of handedness), and Thursday afternoon starter Noah Syndergaard allows a .333 OBP to left-handers but holds right-handers to a .257 mark.

Outfielder Jake Lamb is likely to be the hardest lefty to get rid of. Fortunately, Erik Goeddel has held lefties to a .219 OBP in 32 plate appearances (.220 vs right-handers in 59 PA). Goeddel has really been a sleeper for the Mets this year, although those numbers are deflated a bit by a lower-than-average BAbip. That means that the Mets can confidently use Goeddel regardless of the arrangement of batters. In addition, traditional LOOGY Josh Edgin is available for crucial outs, even as alleged left-handed specialist Jerry Blevins has allowed a .275 OBP to left-handers against a .250 OBP to right-handers.

Future Mets closer Hansel Robles has continued his weird reverse split; he’s holding lefties to a .272 OBP while allowing a .333 OBP to righties (inflated a bit by a high BAbip). That’s not as good as Addison Reed (.193 vs RHB, .262 vs LHB), but it’s still fairly solid. Robles, incidentally, is 5-0 with 3 holds and a 2.28 ERA on a very slightly high BAbip since his 3 2/3 of relief for Bartolo Colon. Although he melted down against Mark Teixeira, he’s still maintained a 3.0 KBB ratio in those last 16 games.


Why isn’t Robles the left-handed specialist? July 5, 2015

Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Economics.
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"Alex Torres on April 23, 2015" by slgckgc on Flickr (Original version)UCinternational - Originally posted to Flickr as "Alex Torres"Cropped by UCinternational. Licensed under CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Alex_Torres_on_April_23,_2015.jpg#/media/File:Alex_Torres_on_April_23,_2015.jpg

“Alex Torres on April 23, 2015” by slgckgc on Flickr, Cropped by UCinternational.

In yesterday’s post, I made reference to Terry Collins‘ maddening habit of treating Alex Torres as a left-handed specialist against all better evidence. In 17 of Torres’ 33 appearances, he’s faced three batters or fewer; those numbers are similar to bridge man Hansel Robles‘ 26 appearances, in which 15 appearances have faced three batters or fewer (each has faced a maximum of eight batters). Robles’ median appearance is a full inning pitched, whereas Torres’ median was 2/3 of an inning. 19 of Torres’ appearances have come in a clean inning, whereas Robles has come in 16 times to start an inning and twice more with one batter on but 0 outs. Overall, the two pitchers are being used in very similar ways, except for one major factor: Almost 48% of the batters Alex Torres has faced are left-handed, as opposed to a hair over 38% for Hansel Robles.

Against righties, Torres has a .297 OBP-against, compared to Robles’ .328, neither being much to write home about. (Closer Jeurys Familia allows a .225 OBP against right-handers and .254 against left-handers, and reliable eighth-inning dude Bobby Parnell carries .294 against righties and .222 against lefties, in a very limited sample this year.) But against lefties, Robles strictly dominates Torres. Robles has a .222 OBP allowed against right-handers, which is as good as Parnell and a smidge better than our closer. But Torres, who’s faced 59 lefties, more than anyone except Familia? Torres allows a monstrous .407 OBP when facing left-handers!


Four oh seven.

That’s the worst platoon split of any active Mets pitcher. Not only is Alex Torres not even better facing lefties than righties, he’s so bad that Alex Torres Against Left-Handers should be sent down to keep Alex Torres Against Right-Handers on the roster! If Left-Handers Against Alex Torres were a single player, they would rank #3 in OBP in the National League, ahead of Anthony Rizzo with .405.

Both Parnell and Robles are better against lefties than righties, but Parnell should be comfortable in his eighth-inning role. Why not bust out Robles against lefty-heavy lineups and see if he can keep up his difference? But for heaven’s sake, quit using Alex Torres against left-handers.