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Chad Johnson saves the day – or at least helps a little November 11, 2015

The Sabres (7-8-0) picked off the Lightning (7-8-2) last night in Tampa Bay, scoring four goals including one empty-netter by Rasmus Ristolainen with an assist from goalie Chad Johnson. The lanky Albertan started his ninth game of the year and pulled his 2.47 goals against average down with a one-goal complete game. Ristolainen has 3 points and a -2 plus/minus over his last five games, so the empty-net goal was a nice lift for him.

The Lightning outshot the Sabres 31-26, so Johnson’s performance was quite important. In the 2014 season, shots had about a .50 correlation with points and a slightly smaller (.49993) correlation with wins. A quick regression analysis shows that shots on goal have a statistically significant effect on both wins and points: one shot corresponds to about .023 wins and about .045 points, both significant at p < .01. Since the Lightning outshot the Sabres last night, there’s a reason that Johnson’s ‘miraculous’ saves were so key.