Manny bidding Manny July 16, 2009
Posted by tomflesher in Academia, Baseball.Tags: Albuquerque Isotopes, auctions, Dodgers, Economics haiku, externalities, Manny Ramirez, Pigouvian tax, steroids in baseball, suspension
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There’s been some debate as to whether Manny Ramirez should have been allowed to make his rehab starts in AAA Albuquerque before returning to his Major League club, the Los Angeles Dodgers, after a 50-game suspension for drug use. Behind the cut, I’d like to think about some of the reasons behind the punishment and propose a solution.
K-Rod, Castillo, and Externalities June 17, 2009
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: baseball-reference.com, Economics haiku, errors, externalities, K-Rod, Luis Castillo, Mets
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On Friday, Luis Castillo committed an error in the bottom of the 9th inning with a one-run lead, two men on base, and two men out. The error was such that had Castillo made the play cleanly, the game would have ended with Francisco Rodriguez notching a save; however, Castillo’s error was directly responsible for two unearned runs scoring, giving Frankie a loss instead of a save.
The question: How much money does Castillo owe Rodriguez? I have a pretty good estimate.
(more…)So why doesn't Nick Swisher pitch every night? April 15, 2009
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Cardinals, Cody Ransom, comparative advantage, Economics haiku, emergency relievers, Gabe Kapler, Joe Girardi, market for pitchers, Moneyball alumni, Nick Swisher, position players pitching, Rays, Scott Spiezio, Wade Boggs, Yankees
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Nick Swisher pitched for the first time in the major leagues on Monday night during the Yankees’ 15-5 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays. As you can see from the box score, Swish pitched pretty well. In fact, in 22 pitches, he gave up only one hit and one walk, threw 12 strikes, and struck out a major-league batter (left-fielder Gabe Kapler). So, will Yankees manager Joe Girardi tap him in relief again soon?
No, of course not. Find out why behind the cut.
Measurability and Derek Jeter February 26, 2009
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Economics.Tags: basketball, Daryl Morey, David Ortiz, Derek Jeter, economics, Economics haiku, plus-minus, Shane Battier
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Skip Sauer at The Sports Economist had an interesting post about Houston Rockets forward Shane Battier’s lack of traditional stats and Rockets GM Daryl Morey’s belief in him regardless. Morey’s use of an adjusted plus-minus stat to justify hiring Battier is reminiscent of Billy Beane’s attention to on-base percentage in building the Oakland As as detailed in Moneyball.
What I take from Sauer’s post is that plus-minus is a surrogate variable for ability to be a team player. That opens the broader question of what can be measured and whether nonmeasurable statistics are ever useful in building a team.
Sabernomics on A-Rod and Steroid Use February 11, 2009
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Alex Rodriguez, Baseball, Sabernomics, steroids
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At Sabernomics, JC Bradbury crunches some numbers on home run numbers for Alex Rodriguez during the seasons in which he admits steroid use:
So, what were A-Rod’s steroids worth? 2.37 home runs over two seasons, or a little over one home run a season. At least, that is the estimate based on the method I laid out above; however, it’s probably best to say that there was no observed effect.
In the comments section, Bradbury crunches the walk numbers to control for the possibility that a more powerful A-Rod was less selective at the plate and, again, finds no observable effect. There are some moderately outlandish hypotheses that could account for this, such as the league’s pitchers cycling steroids coincident with Rodriguez, so that a roided-up A-Rod would hit against roided-up pitchers and a clean A-Rod would hit against clean pitchers, but, well, Occam’s Razor.
Statistical evidence that the Rays are outclassed. October 27, 2008
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Baseball, Phillies, Rays
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The series thus far.
Q.E.D.
Quickie: The World Series NL DH October 23, 2008
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Braves, Cardinals, Chris Coste, designated hitter, Lonnie Smith, Marlins, Phillies, quickies, weird lines, world series
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Things are fairly busy – it’s midterm time, and in my spare time I’ve been crunching numbers on the Canadian federal election. I’ve also been following Theron over at Recondite Baseball, who did a very interesting post about pitchers responsible for a high percentage of their team’s wins. I’d like to take a look at something that I consider to be the opposite: the poor guy who ends up playing DH for the National League team.
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