The Three-Inning Save is an Endangered Species April 7, 2014
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Baseball, Brad Hand, Marlins, saves, Tom Koehler
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Yesterday, Manny Parra pitched two perfect innings to pick up the save against the Mets. It was a natural save situation – the Reds were leading 2-1 and used their best reliever to maintain that lead. Usually, saves are only one inning, but two-inning saves aren’t unusual.
The save rule (Rule 10.19) does, however, allow for a less-common type of save:
- He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his team;
- He is not the winning pitcher;
- He is credited with at least ⅓ of an inning pitched; and
- He satisfies one of the following conditions:
- He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning
- He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, at bat or on deck
- He pitches for at least three innings.
Brad Hand of Miami picked up that sort of save on April 4th, saving starter Tom Koehler‘s win in a rout of the Padres. It was Hand’s first career save; he’s in his fourth season with the Marlins and has been excellent from the bullpen, but this was his first save opportunity. It was also the first three-inning save of 2014.
The king of the three-inning save last year was Brett Anderson, then of Oakland and currently of Colorado. Anderson recorded three of the long saves – coincidentally his only three career saves. He’s starting for Colorado this year, so his days as long man are probably over. These long saves were more common in the past, when starters finished games far more often and specialized relievers weren’t used; the all-time leader for this type of save is Hoyt Wilhelm, who notched 53 of them between 1952 and 1971, often pitching four full innings. Bob Stanley, Dan Quisenberry, and Bill Campbell share the single-season record with 11 three-inning saves in 1982, 1983, and 1977, respectively. Since 2005, only Anderson and John Wasdin of the 2005 Texas Rangers have had three of them in a season. Don’t expect many more this year.
d’Arnaud’s Hitless Streak is Par for the Course April 7, 2014
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: catching, Dioner Navarro, hitless streaks, Russell Martin, Travis d'Arnaud
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Yesterday’s Mets game was a heartbreaker, from the lack of production by the offense to Jon Niese taking a tough loss in a 2-1 game with 5 2/3 innings pitched (game score 52). Travis d’Arnaud is still hitless in his first 17 plate appearances this season, though he’s walked twice to give him a .118 OBP so far. Last year, d’Arnaud had a .202/.286/.263 line in 31 games and 112 plate appearances.
The conventional wisdom is that catchers get a slower start than most other positions when hitting due to the focus during spring training being on developing pitchers and making sure they’re ready. Let’s assume that last year’s line represents d’Arnaud’s true level of ability (a dicey proposition, certainly) – is is likely we’d see him hitting 0 times in 15 at-bats (ignoring his two walks)? If we assume that walks and hits are independent (again, dicey), then we can track out the likelihood that d’Arnaud would go 0-for-15 as the probability he makes an out – .798 – raised to the 15th power – about .034. That means out of every 1000 15-at-bat strings, about 34 of them would be 0-fors. That makes it pretty unlikely that d’Arnaud’s difficulty is just a product of bad luck.
Russell Martin had a similar streak last year, going 17 at-bats before his first hit after hitting .211 as a Yankee the previous year – his streak was even less likely, with a probability of about .018. Martin broke the streak in his first plate appearance of his April 9th game. Once he started hitting, his line (excluding those first six games) was .235/.333/.362 in 121 games – hardly earth-shattering (and the reason the Pirates picked up John Buck from the Mets), but significantly better than those first six.
As another case study, Dioner Navarro had a five-game hitless streak to open the season last year, spanning five games – but only as a catcher. He actually hit in his sixth plate appearance, which was as a pinch hitter. Navarro was 8 for 32 (.250) in his appearances as a pinch hitter, and 5 for 14 (.357) in five games as Chicago’s designated hitter.
Hopefully d’Arnaud will clean it up over the next few games and break his streak – he’s already leading this year’s catchers in hitless games this season. He hit a long, loud out almost to the fence yesterday, so he has the potential.
Cueto sits on bench, sobs April 6, 2014
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Baseball, bullpen, game score, Ike Davis, Johnny Cueto, Juan Lagares, Mets, Tough Losses
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Johnny Cueto is having a tough year so far. In yesterday’s game against the Mets, he pitched to a game score of 65, allowing two earned runs in seven innings; he left with a lead, followed quickly with a hold by Sam LeCure and a blown save by J.J. Hoover, who surrendered a pinch-hit grand slam to professional pinch hitter Ike Davis1. 65 is a solid game score; the sabermetric definition of a quality start is a pitcher who adds value to his team by pitching to a game score above 50. In his first start of the year, Cueto threw seven innings of three-hit ball and struck out eight, pitching to a 74 game score and surrendering only one run. Unfortunately, that day, Adam Wainwright threw seven innings of three-hit ball and struck out nine, pitching to a 76 game score and surrendering no runs. Neither bullpen surrendered much, and so Wainwright took the win and dealt Cueto one of the toughest losses we’re likely to see this year.
Let’s give the devil their due – although it’s been easy to criticize the Mets’ bullpen, Scott Rice and Carlos Torres combined for a perfect inning and two thirds yesterday, keeping the score close enough that Ike was able to knock in the winning home run.
Meanwhile, Juan Lagares‘ slugging percentage is still up at .765, and with 13 total bases on 21 plate appearances he’s averaging about .62 bases every time he steps to the plate. Lagares’ slide into second yesterday was important for Ike’s hit to be a grand slam; if he’d been out, Ruben Tejada could easily have grounded into a double play and kept Ike out of the batter’s box. Still, Tejada’s OBP is at .389, and if he can keep that up, a shortstop who gets on base almost eight out of every 20 plate appearances is a valuable person to have on your roster.
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1Davis’s first pinch-hit home run, and, according to Greg Prince via Twitter, the first come-from-behind walk-off grand slam in the history of the Mets.
Good news, everyone! April 5, 2014
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: "Good news everyone!", BABIP, bullpen, Kyle Farnsworth, setup man
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Perhaps I’m just giddy with the excitement of the Mets notching their first win of the season last night. Everything seemed to fit together – Jenrry Mejia was solid early on, and despite two brushes with injury, he pitched six excellent innings (6 IP, 4 H, 1 R (earned), 4 BB, 8 K) before turning it over to the bullpen. John Lannan is struggling as a reliever, credited with a hold despite allowing two runs on as many hits (one home run) and striking out one in his 2/3 of an inning; Kyle Farnsworth pitched a baffling perfect inning and a third before Jose Valverde came in and struck out one, walking one, to get his first save of the inning.
Professor Farnsworth was similarly perfect in nineteen games last year. Those include three appearances with one batter faced, four with two batters faced, thirteen complete innings, and one five-out situation. Three of the complete innings were finished games for Pittsburgh, where he finished seven games, most of them losses. Shockingly, Farnsworth blew only one save, earning two saves in Pittsburgh and two one-out holds in Tampa Bay. That means with last night’s hold, Farnsworth is halfway to last year’s mark. Hopefully, Farnsworth won’t be pressed into service as an emergency closer this year: His time in Tampa Bay had a 5.70 ERA and a .337 batting average on balls in play against a .298 league average BAbip. Since Tampa Bay’s team BAbip was .286, that means they got a little lucky, and Farnsworth got unlucky sometimes. When he headed to Pittsburgh, though, it was like Farns was a totally different player – and he was. Against an NL with a league average .296 BAbip, and playing for Pittsburgh with a team .289 BAbip against, Farnsworth’s BAbip was a surprisingly low .250. That’s a .087 drop from his Tampa Bay average, or about 2 hits every 23 balls in play. Hopefully, Farnsworth can keep up the luck in 2014, but frankly the better news would be if we had a more reliable setup man.
Quickie: Lagares’ SLG and bases per at-bat April 4, 2014
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Juan Lagares
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Through the Mets’ third game of this season, Juan Lagares and David Wright have been the core of the team’s offense. Lagares played in 121 games last season, putting up a near-replacement-level .242/.281/.352 line and hitting only 4 home runs but providing incredible value defensively.
This year, Lagares has thus far been a nice surprise. In three games and 13 plate appearances, Lagares has hit one home run, one triple, two doubles, and a single, for 12 total bases. He’s also walked once. His slugging percentage – total bases/at-bats – gives us 12/11, or 1.091. If you just take total bases and plate appearances, counting his walk as one base, he has 12 bases in 13 plate appearances. In other words, Lagares is averaging .92 bases per trip to the plate.
The Sidney Awards for March 2014 April 4, 2014
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Sidney Awards
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Even this picture is disappointing. Credit: Mretalli on Wikipedia
It’s time again1 for the Sidney Ponson Memorial Awards for Disappointing Performance in Baseball, better known as the Sidneys! The awards commemorate the major league performance of Sir Sidney Ponson of Aruba, the first Aruban Major Leaguer and a knight of the Netherlands who had multiple brushes with the law, was in general a disappointing pitcher, and was banned from European baseball after the 2009 World Baseball Classic because he tested positive for diet pills.
The Sidney for Team Performance goes unanimously to the New York Mets. Though officially these are the March 2014 Sidneys, it’s fair to say that the Mets have been disappointing throughout and are already frontrunners for the April Sidney as well. From Bobby Parnell blowing his first save of the season and promptly going on the disabled list to their baffling continued employment of three first basemen, including two left-handers, and culminating in GM Sandy Alderson’s challenge that the team could win 90 games this year, the Mets seem bent on sweeping the Team Performance Sidneys for this season (at least until the playoffs start.)
The Sidney for Bullpen Performance goes to the New York Mets! In their only March 2014 game, six Mets relievers combined for 3 1/3 innings, including Scott Rice and Carlos Torres each walking their only batter. The pen’s line was 3.3 IP, 5 hits, 5 runs (all earned), 4 walks, and, yes, 5 strikeouts – but three of those were earned by Jose Valverde, and another by alleged closer Bobby Parnell.
Finally, three Pitching Sidneys need to be awarded. The first two go to the pitchers with the cheapest cheap win and the toughest tough loss of the month. On the 31st, Cliff Lee pitched the lousiest game thus far this year, pitching 5 innings and allowing 11 hits, 8 runs, all earned, 1 walk, 1 strikeout, and 1 home run. This adds up to a game score of 13; a quality start would be 50 or more. Lee actually added -.449 win probability, meaning he could have taken an average 50-50 game and made it 95% certain his team would lose. Fortunately, Lee’s run support was solid enough to get him 9 runs and let him leave, eventually winning 14-10.
The toughest loss of the month goes to Hyun-jin Ryu of the Dodgers, who pitched seven scoreless innings on March 30th, allowing only 3 hits, walking three but striking out seven. His game score, 75, would ordinarily be recorded as a gem of a win. However, the Sidney for Individual Performance by a Reliever goes to Brian Wilson, who entered the game and promptly blew a save by allowing two hits and three runs, two earned, as well as walking one batter and allowing one home run. Wilson’s epic meltdown was in all likelihood due to nerve irritation in his arm, which put him on the disabled list for at least 15 days. Hopefully, the Dodgers can tap some of their talented relievers to keep themselves out of the April 2014 Sidneys.
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1Not a guarantee; may be the first time these have been awarded.
The Dodgers Roll The Dice April 2, 2014
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Brian Wilson, Chone Figgins, Dodgers, Kenley Jansen, Paco Rodriguez
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The Dodgers are quickly overtaking the Giants on my “Favorite Teams Formerly of New York City” list. First of all, they grabbed Brian Wilson, and the audacity of using a World Series closer who saved 48 games in 2010 to set up a converted catcher rubbed me the right way. (Kenley Jansen is easily at the top of my “Favorite Converted Catchers” list.) Plus, watching Don Mattingly grow up and do less stupid stuff has been one of the best parts of Joe Torre‘s retirement.
The Dodgers have a couple of lotto tickets on the bench right now. Wilson, who sat out most of the last two seasons following his oblique injury, is a major risk as a power pitcher, but if he’s healthy again, the combination of a confident Wilson in the eighth and a Jansen whose ERA has dropped in each of the last two seasons could be the surprise bullpen of the year, especially if you consider Adrian Garcia’s argument at Lasorda’s Lair in favor of Paco Rodriguez as a potential set-up man.
But wait! There’s more!
Wilson isn’t the only player to make the squad after sitting out 2013. Chone Figgins was on the Marlins’ minor league squad last year but was released early in the season. The 5’8″ switch hitter came out of his involuntary retirement to sign as a bench option for the Dodgers, putting up a .340 OBP in spring training despite a .200 batting average. Figgins is continuing his trend into the regular season, since he’s appeared twice as a pinch hitter and walked each time (probably due to his minuscule strike zone). Figgins won’t start much this year, but if he can maintain his spring OBP into the regular season he’ll be a true asset for the club.
Not the bullpen again… April 1, 2014
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Mets, Nationals, Not the bullpen again, Opening Day, Stuff Gary Cohen Says
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In the “Stuff Gary Cohen Says” pile, let’s add “When you score six runs, you expect to win the game.” Why he said that, specifically, I’m not sure, since at the time he said it, the score was 5-5.
Offensively, the Mets had a great game yesterday. In any just universe, two homers in regulation giving a five-run score should have won the game; last year, only 308 teams lost in 9 innings or less with 5 or more runs scored, compared to 1697 teams that won in regulation with at least five. This, of course, isn’t a just universe; it’s Queens.
Dillon Gee had a quality start by game score (53), if not under the official definition, allowing 4 earned runs in 6.2 innings pitched. That was a little long, and the Mets’ commentary team pointed out that Warthen and Collins seem to plan to let their starters work a little longer this year. Given the bullpen’s performance, I’m not shocked by that – although Jose Valverde pitched a perfect inning and a third (striking out three), two of the Mets’ relievers walked their only batter faced. Bobby Parnell blew a save, giving up a crucial double to Denard Span in the 9th and showing velocities that were surprisingly low. Aside from Valverde, the bullpen looked as unreliable as it did last year.
Parnell had an injury-marred season last year. It’s important not to take too much out of a single appearance. That said, I’ve never been a big fan of Parnell. Valverde isn’t the answer – he may not even be as consistent as Latroy Hawkins was last year, judging by his spring performance – but the Mets have an inexperienced bullpen and they desperately need some consistency from the pen. Parnell’s neck still raises concerns, as does his seeming inability to handle pressure. There’s no reason the Mets should be relying on Jeurys Familia in the tenth inning on opening day.
It’ll take a few weeks before the system shakes out, of course, and we’ll see whether the Mets’ pen steps up and develops over the early season. That said, the closer position will definitely need some attention.
Wins and Revenue March 31, 2014
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Economics.Tags: linear model, Marginal Revenue Product of a win, Revenue, Wins
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Forbes has released its annual list of baseball team valuations. This is interesting because it accounts for all of the revenue that each team makes, ignoring a lot of the broader factors that play into what causes a team’s value to rise or fall. It also includes a bunch of extra data, including which teams’ values are rising, which are falling, and what each team’s operating income is for the year.
Without getting too in-depth, there are a lot of interesting relationships we can observe by crunching some of the numbers. First, the relationship between wins and revenue is often taken for granted, but the correlation is really very small – only about .26. That means that there’s a great deal more in play determining revenue than just whether a team wins or loses. (This, of course, assumes a linear relationship – one win is worth a fixed dollar amount, and that fixed dollar amount is the same for every team. Correcting this for local income – allowing a win to be worth more in New York than in Pittsburgh – would be an easy extension.)
Under the same assumptions, we can also run a quick linear regression to determine what an average team’s revenue would be at 0 wins and then determine what each marginal win’s revenue product is. Those numbers tell us that, roughly, a 0-win team would make about $129.68 million dollars, gaining around $1.31 million for each win. Again, though, there are a lot of problems with this – obviously, a 0-win team doesn’t exist and would probably have significantly lower revenue than we’d estimate. Even the worst team last year came in at 51 wins. Also, the p-values don’t exactly inspire confidence – the $130 million figure is significant at the 10% level, but the Wins factor comes in around 16%. That’s a pretty chancy number.
Extending it out to include a squared value for wins, we come up with numbers that are astonishingly nonpredictive – the intercept drops to -$34.9 million for a 0-win team (much more reasonable!) with the expected positive marginal value for wins ($5.6 million) and a negative coefficient for squared wins (-$.027), indicating that wins have a decreasing marginal effect as would be predicted. (Once you have 97 wins, the 98th doesn’t usually provide much value.) However, those numbers are basically no better than chance, with respective p-values of .936, .619, and .701. Although the signs look nice, the magnitudes are up in the air.
The sanest model that I can come up with is a log-log regression – that is, starting off with the natural log of revenue and regressing it on the natural log of the number of wins. This gives you an elasticity – a value that explains a percentage change in revenue for a 1% change in the number of wins. This isn’t the most realistic value, of course, since baseball teams play a fixed number of games, but the values look much better – the model looks like:
log(Revenue) = 3.6608 + .4058*log(Wins)
The 3.6608 value is highly significant (p = .00299) and the .4058 coefficient on the number of wins is the strongest we’ve seen yet (p = .1253). It still gives us an unfortunate $38 million operating budget for a zero-win team, but says that doubling a team’s wins should give a 40% increase in revenue. That seems a bit more reasonable.
There are a couple of other, nicer functional forms we could use, but for now, that’s the best we can do with purely linear models.
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