Mets seek to win season series against Dodgers (Mets Game 49 Preview) May 29, 2016
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Bartolo Colon, Clayton Kershaw, Mets game 48, Mets game 49
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Chase Utley during 2016 Spring Training. Photo: Kdolson20 via Wikimedia Commons
After a 9-1 loss last night, the Mets have thus far split the season series with the Dodgers 3-3. The final game is this evening at Citi. Tensions are high following Chase Utley‘s extremely strong performance and Noah Syndergaard‘s ejection for throwing behind Utley in the third inning.
You can’t comment on game 48 without weighing in on the Utley-Syndergaard controversy, so let me just say this: it’s ridiculous that Syndergaard’s manager is worried he’ll be suspended for not hitting Utley, after Utley never served a suspension for a malicious dropkick slide at Ruben Tejada. For Syndergaard to be ejected the same day Tejada is designated for assignment, and for Utley to then hit the go-ahead homer and hit a grand slam, seems almost like a lazy literary device in a bad baseball novel.
The Mets, though, have work to do. Hansel Robles seemed listless; he allowed Utley’s grand slam in his first inning of work, relieving Antonio Bastardo in the seventh, but otherwise got out of the inning with two strikeouts and a fly ball. In the eighth, though, Hansel allowed two more home runs and two walks (sneaking a double play in in the process). Robles wasn’t the same during the eighth, and it seemed like he had lost interest in it by the time Jerry Blevins relieved him.
As for Syndergaard, he half-jokingly suggested he’d be available:
I'm fresh. Can be available from pen. Just saying. #LGM
— Noah Syndergaard (@Noahsyndergaard) May 29, 2016
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Logan Verrett is probably unavailable after throwing 43 pitches in 3 2/3 innings last night; Bastardo tossed only 13, Robles 27, Blevins only 8 and Jim Henderson 16. Robles is almost surely available only in a pinch, but Bastardo is probably available. Nevertheless, having Syndergaard ready to pitch out of the bullpen does give the Mets some much-needed bullpen flexibility from a confident reliever. I’d be unsurprised to see him pitch Monday or Tuesday, but pitching him today might throw off his schedule.
Bartolo Colon starts tonight. Bart is unflappable; expect very little in the way of aftershocks from him. Utley has hit him mercilessly, 10-20 career with 2 doubles and a home run. Adrian Gonzalez is 13-28 (.464) with two doubles and three homers. Catcher Yasmani Grandal also has an OPS near 1, with a .250 average on 8 plate appearances including a homer of his own. Otherwise, the usual suspects are quiet: Justin Turner is 1-12, Carl Crawford 6-36, Howie Kendrick and anemic 3-25.
Still, it’s going to be hard to hit Clayton Kershaw. James Loney is 1-1 against Kershaw, but hasn’t joined the team yet. Likely first baseman Eric Campbell is hitless in 6 plate appearances against Clayton, as is Kevin Plawecki (6 PAs) and Alejandro De Aza (5). Usual threats Neil Walker, Yoenis Cespedes, and Juan Lagares are each 1-12, with David Wright and Asdrubal Cabrera each also at or below the Mendoza line. In fact, only Asdrubal Cabrera (.286/.375/.286) and backup catcher Rene Rivera (.250/.333/.250) are above the .200 mark. Wright, however, has walked 7 times in 28 plate appearances; one of those came on May 12 of this year in Colon’s uncharacteristic 5-0 loss to Kershaw. Wright sat on Saturday and will sit on Monday.
In order for the Mets to take the season series against the Dodgers, Colon will need to neutralize Utley. Defense is more important than usual, since Kershaw makes so few mistakes. Kershaw hasn’t allowed a home run since April 26 and has surrendered only 3 this year, so it’s incumbent on players like Wright and Granderson to get on base regardless of the circumstances and players like Cabrera and Walker to move them over. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mets can squeeze a longball out of Kershaw – they’ve been very good at it this year – and as long as they keep the defensive pressure on, this game is eminently winnable.
The Playoff Bullpen, or, Bartolo Colon Makes his Seventh Relief Appearance August 31, 2015
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Economics.Tags: Bartolo Colon, starters in relief, wild playoff speculation
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So as not to bury the lede, Bartolo Colon made a planned appearance in relief for the Mets on Saturday. Though the Mets lost the game, Bart pitched a nice eighth inning, allowing a double (although David Ortiz was really out, thanks to Juan Uribe‘s heads up play) but striking out 2. He finished the game for the Mets.
At a 7 Line game a few weeks ago, someone asked me, “Who do you keep for the playoffs?” My answer, as always, was “Make Bart the highest-paid setup man in the league.” Obviously, you can’t take Jeurys Familia out of the closer’s role – he’s just too good there. With extra days off, though, the Mets could rely on Colon as a strong eighth-inning man with the capability to carry a game into extra innings. No matter what the situation, Bart would be the right choice in the eighth, leaving Tyler Clippard as an ace reliever/fireman.
Bartolo Colon. Photo: Arturo Pardavila III
Clippard has been used ecumenically from the bullpen, facing 113 right-handed batters (who hit .229/.336/.406 against him) and 125 left-handed batters (.108/.208/.135). The lefty numbers are a bit deflated by a .141 BAbip, compared to a .261 BAbip against righties, but Clippard is clearly very good regardless of the situation. It’s clear that Terry Collins is aware of that, since he’s relied on Clippy to come in mid-inning in several appearances (and that allowed him to avoid waving early for his closer). You don’t need two left-handed specialists if you have Clippard on hand.
Roughly, that means that the Mets could start with a core rotation of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Jon Niese, with a potential 8-man bullpen anchored by Familia, Colon, and Clippard for the late innings; Hansel Robles, Carlos Torres and Addison Reed to eat innings; Eric O’Flaherty as a lefty specialist; and Sean Gilmartin as a long man. That leaves the Mets with a short twelve-man bench, but Terry does have the flexibility to use Niese to run and deGrom and Syndergaard to hit, situationally. I wish Steven Matz would make an appearance, but that’s off the table.
The alternative might be to carry a third catcher in lieu of Robles or Reed in the pen, but the upside of Kevin Plawecki and Anthony Recker on the bench doesn’t seem like a great payoff, since the marginal runs from having both Plawecki and Recker as pinch hitters wouldn’t add up to much. Plus, with the depth of production from the infielders, the ability of Uribe, Wilmer Flores, and Daniel Murphy to play multiple positions, and strong outfield defense, the Mets can get away without as many hard hitters on the bench.
Do I really think Terry Collins will play a short bench and use Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard as pinch hitters? No, of course not. I think it’s more likely that Syndergaard ends up being used more often in relief due to his road struggles and O’Flaherty gets left off the roster (with Gilmartin being used as a lefty specialist), or Torres gets sent down, in order to maintain a longer bench with an extra outfielder to hit or run situationally. Still, I think if the Mets can dial in their run production, a shorter bench won’t be an issue.
Just to show Colon isn’t the only starter who makes the occasional relief appearance, three starters have earned saves on their throw days this year:
- Williams Perez, June 13, for Atlanta at the Mets
- Tommy Milone, August 23, for Minnesota at Baltimore
- Jerome Williams, August 28, for Philadelphia vs. San Diego
Bartolo Colon Needs a Three-Hour Warmup July 11, 2014
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Bartolo Colon, Stuff Gary Cohen Says
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Mets veteran starting pitcher Bartolo Colon had a very familiar outcome last night: He allowed three earned runs in the first inning, followed by seven innings of scoreless ball. He took the loss to Aaron Harang, 3-1. Harang pitched an excellent game and Craig Kimbrel was lights-out, as he often is. It was a quality start by any definition, making it Colon’s third tough loss. Though Bart hasn’t picked up any cheap wins this year, 11 of his 18 starts have had game scores of 50+, and 12 of them have been “headline” quality starts of 6+ innings with 3 or fewer runs. 8 of them have been “super quality starts,” per Gary Cohen, of 7+ innings with two or fewer runs; he’s won all of those.
There’s an endogeneity problem in stating that Colon gets better when he’s allowed to pitch longer, since obviously his better pitching is the cause, not the effect, of going 
longer into the game. Nonetheless, Colon demonstrates a strong pattern of underperformance in the first inning. His ERA is a striking 8.47 in the first inning and literally half that – 4.24 – in the second (stats NOT INCLUDING last night’s game). Colon’s best inning is the third, but he’s serviceable through the remaining innings as well. His first inning involves facing the most batters, as indicated by the huge spike in total bases; he just has trouble getting opposing batters out during the first. He’s structurally different, too: he gives up nearly 3/4 of a base per plate appearance in the first, and every first-inning plate appearance is worth one-fifth of a run. Part of this tracks with Colon’s shifting BAbip, which spikes along with his per-plate-appearance stats – it looks almost exactly like the graph of total bases per plate appearance – but you can’t blame defense for numbers like this.
There’s not much explanation for this. It’s the sort of pattern you’d expect from an inexperienced pitcher who doesn’t warm up properly. He didn’t have the same problem last year or the prior year, when his first-inning ERA was reliably 3.00. This is difficult to pinpoint, but maybe Colon should take some advice from Daisuke Matsuzaka and do a three-hour warmup.
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