So why doesn't Nick Swisher pitch every night? April 15, 2009
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Cardinals, Cody Ransom, comparative advantage, Economics haiku, emergency relievers, Gabe Kapler, Joe Girardi, market for pitchers, Moneyball alumni, Nick Swisher, position players pitching, Rays, Scott Spiezio, Wade Boggs, Yankees
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Nick Swisher pitched for the first time in the major leagues on Monday night during the Yankees’ 15-5 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays. As you can see from the box score, Swish pitched pretty well. In fact, in 22 pitches, he gave up only one hit and one walk, threw 12 strikes, and struck out a major-league batter (left-fielder Gabe Kapler). So, will Yankees manager Joe Girardi tap him in relief again soon?
No, of course not. Find out why behind the cut.
The Misery Index April 2, 2009
Posted by tomflesher in Academia, Economics, US Politics.Tags: economics, Economics haiku, macroeconomics, Misery Index, research project ideas
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The Misery Index is a measure of national economic health derived by adding the unemployment rate to the rate of inflation. It was famously used by Jimmy Carter to declare that Gerald Ford, under whom the rate had risen to 12.5%, had no right to run the country, and then by Ronald Reagan to declare that Carter was unfit for the presidency after it rose to over 20%. (It’s available in real time at MiseryIndex.us.) (more…)
Measurability and Derek Jeter February 26, 2009
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Economics.Tags: basketball, Daryl Morey, David Ortiz, Derek Jeter, economics, Economics haiku, plus-minus, Shane Battier
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Skip Sauer at The Sports Economist had an interesting post about Houston Rockets forward Shane Battier’s lack of traditional stats and Rockets GM Daryl Morey’s belief in him regardless. Morey’s use of an adjusted plus-minus stat to justify hiring Battier is reminiscent of Billy Beane’s attention to on-base percentage in building the Oakland As as detailed in Moneyball.
What I take from Sauer’s post is that plus-minus is a surrogate variable for ability to be a team player. That opens the broader question of what can be measured and whether nonmeasurable statistics are ever useful in building a team.
Sabernomics on A-Rod and Steroid Use February 11, 2009
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Alex Rodriguez, Baseball, Sabernomics, steroids
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At Sabernomics, JC Bradbury crunches some numbers on home run numbers for Alex Rodriguez during the seasons in which he admits steroid use:
So, what were A-Rod’s steroids worth? 2.37 home runs over two seasons, or a little over one home run a season. At least, that is the estimate based on the method I laid out above; however, it’s probably best to say that there was no observed effect.
In the comments section, Bradbury crunches the walk numbers to control for the possibility that a more powerful A-Rod was less selective at the plate and, again, finds no observable effect. There are some moderately outlandish hypotheses that could account for this, such as the league’s pitchers cycling steroids coincident with Rodriguez, so that a roided-up A-Rod would hit against roided-up pitchers and a clean A-Rod would hit against clean pitchers, but, well, Occam’s Razor.
Rock Has a Diminishing Marginal Product of Labor February 3, 2009
Posted by tomflesher in Economics.Tags: Bruce Springsteen, Clarence Clemons, economics, humor, marginal product, marginal product of labor
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From Yahoo’s List of the Day:
8) There were too many people on the stage. After five members in a band most rock ‘n’ roll groups get noticeably worse with each additional member. Van Morrison is the exception to this rule and Bruce has skirted it by employing top notch guys like Miami Steve and Nils Lofgren. However, he had at least six guitar players onstage. All playing the same parts. Add on the horn section and we’re talking chaos.
And, what happens when musicians are crowded out? Bad things. Especially for Clarence Clemons.
2) He sticks poor Clarence on COWBELL. For “Glory Days,” suddenly Clarence is shuttled off his beloved saxophone, a horn section is bought out front and Clarence is given the lowly COWBELL. Now, the Cowbell has always been an in-joke for all rock bands ever since Saturday Night Live and Blue Oyster Cult deemed “more cowbell” a worthy epithet. Do you think anyone in that stadium heard that cowbell? I bet even Clarence couldn’t hear the damn thing.
Signalling and For-Profit Colleges February 2, 2009
Posted by tomflesher in Uncategorized.Tags: economics, Economics haiku, higher education, human capital, Sheepskin effect, Signaling, Signalling
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Signalling in economics is the idea that, given imperfect information and a cost to disseminate that information, there are ways for high-quality agents to show (signal) others of their high quality.
This fellow doesn’t know it, but he’s trying to break signalling theory. Can he succeed? I don’t think so. My reasoning (second-order signalling) and a haiku behind the cut.
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