## San Diego has lost three straight shutouts.April 7, 2016

Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.
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Dodgers pitchers Clayton Kershaw, Scott Kazmir, and Kenta Maeda each have a win against the Padres to start the year. After the Kershaw-led 15-0 blowout, the Dodgers followed up with a 3-0 and a 7-0 win. It looks like we’re in for another Padres season, alright.

This is the longest streak for a team being shut out to start a season in MLB history. The Padres have lost three consecutive games with 0 runs; midseason, there were three similar streaks last year (St Louis losing a shutout sweep to Atlanta, Baltimore to Boston, and [funnily enough] the Dodgers to the Giants). 8 teams, most recently the 1992 Cubs, have had a season with four shutout losses.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers are starting the season on three consecutive shutouts (though no single pitcher was credited with one – they were all combined shutouts). Only one other team has managed that – the 1963 St Louis Cardinals. Three teams have 5-game midseason shutout streaks (Baltimore in 1995 and 1974, and the Cardinals in 1962); 14 have 4-game streaks, most recently the 2012 Giants.

The Padres head to Colorado on Friday for a three-game series. The thin air may help open up their scoring, particularly if Yangervis Solarte (who has the team’s only extra-base hit and one of two walks) can engage a bit more. Rockies pitcher Jordan Lyles (Friday) had a 5.14 ERA in 2015 and recorded his only career shutout in 2012.

The Dodgers head to San Francisco today, starting Alex Wood and Ross Stripling. Wood was 12-12 with a 3.86 ERA in 2015; Stripling started 14 games at A and AA last year and is making his MLB debut. Wood has no career shutouts.

Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Economics.
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I was all set to fire up the Choke Index again this year. Unfortunately, Derek Jeter foiled my plan by making his 3000th hit right on time, so I can’t get any mileage out of that. Perhaps Jim Thome will start choking around #600 – but, frankly, I hope not. Since Jeter had such a callous disregard for the World’s Worst Sports Blog’s material, I’m forced to make up a new statistic.

This actually plays into an earlier post I made, which was about home field advantage for the Giants. It started off as a very simple regression for National League teams to see if the Giants’ pattern – a negative effect on runs scored at home, no real effect from the DH – held across the league. Those results are interesting and hold with the pattern that we’ll see below – I’ll probably slice them into a later entry.

The first thing I wanted to do, though, was find team effects on runs scored. Basically, I want to know how many runs an average team of Greys will score, how many more runs they’ll score at home, how many more runs they’ll score on the road if they have a DH, and then how many more runs the Phillies, the Mets, or any other team will score above their total. I’m doing this by converting Baseball Reference’s schedules and results for each team through their last game on July 10 to a data file, adding dummy variables for each team, and then running a linear regression of runs scored by each team against dummy variables for playing at home, playing with a DH, and the team dummies. In equation form,

$\hat{R} = \beta_0 + \beta_1 Home + \beta_2 DH + \delta_{PHI} + \delta_{ATL} + ... + \delta_{COL}$

For technical reasons, I needed to leave a team out, and so I chose the team that had the most negative coefficient: the Padres. Basically, then, the $\delta$ terms represent how many runs the team scores above what the Padres would score. I call this “RAP,” for Runs Above Padres. I then ran the same equation, but rather than runs scored by the team, I estimated runs allowed by the team’s defense. That, logically enough, was called “ARAP,” for Allowed Runs Above Padres. A positive RAP means that a team scores more runs than the Padres, while a negative ARAP means the team doesn’t allow as many runs as the Padres. Finally, to pull it all together, one handy number shows how many more runs better off a team is than the Padres:

$Padre Differential = RAP - ARAP$

That is, the Padre Differential shows whether a team’s per-game run differential is higher or lower than the Padres’.

The table below shows each team in the National League, sorted by Padre Differential. By definition, San Diego’s Padre Differential is zero. ‘Sig95’ represents whether or not the value is statistically significant at the 95% level.

$\begin{tabular}{|r||r|r|r|r|r|} \hline \textbf{Team}&\textbf{RAP}&\textbf{Sig95}&\textbf{ARAP}&\textbf{Sig95}&\textbf{Padre Differential}\\ \hline PHI&0.915521&1&\textbf{-0.41136}&0&\textbf{1.326881}\\ \hline ATL&0.662871&0&-0.26506&0&0.927931\\ \hline CIN&\textbf{1.44507}&1&0.75882&0&0.68625\\ \hline STL&1.402174&1&0.75&0&0.652174\\ \hline NYM&1.079943&1&0.58458&0&0.495363\\ \hline ARI&1.217101&1&0.74589&0&0.471211\\ \hline SFG&0.304031&0&-0.15842&0&0.462451\\ \hline PIT&0.628821&0&0.1873&0&0.441521\\ \hline MIL&1.097899&1&0.74016&0&0.357739\\ \hline WSN&0.521739&0&0.17391&0&0.347829\\ \hline COL&1.036033&0&0.81422&0&0.221813\\ \hline LAD&0.391595&0&0.38454&0&0.007055\\ \hline FLA&0.564074&0&0.66097&0&-0.0969\\ \hline CHC&0.771739&0&1.31522&1&-0.54348\\ \hline HOU&0.586857&0&1.38814&1&-0.80128\\ \hline \end{tabular}$

Unsurprisingly, the Phillies – the best team in baseball – have the highest Padre Differential in the league, with over 1.3 runs on average better than the Padres. Houston, in the cellar of the NL Central, is the worst team in the league and is .8 runs worse than the Padres per game. Florida and Chicago are both worse than the Padres and are both close to (Florida, 43) or below (Chicago, 37) the Padres’ 40-win total.

## Early one-hittersJune 11, 2010

Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.
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