Mets Weekend Roundup (Games 4 and 5) April 11, 2016
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Marlins, Mets, Mets Game 4, Mets Game 5, Mets Game 6
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Yoenis Cespedes finally homered in the Mets’ 5-2 loss to the Phillies. Cespedes’ home run chased starter Jeremy Hellickson in the bottom of the 6th inning, coming on Cespedes’ third plate appearance of the day. In the first four games of the season, Yoenis had 2 hits and 2 walks on 18 plate appearances, so his homer came on his 21st plate appearance of the season. Last year, Cespedes played 10 games in New York before homering, hitting .262 with a .279 OBP. For Detroit, Cespedes homered 18 times in 427 plate appearances for an average of 23.72 plate appearances per homer; his Mets numbers were significantly better, at 17 homers in 249 plate appearances, for one home run every 14.65 plate appearances. His BAbip in Detroit was .333; in New York last year, it was .306. Ces has never been an OBP guy, but his BAbip this year is .222, meaning he may be suffering more than would be expected from good defense by the Phillies and Royals. Still, even assuming last year’s New York stats were accurate, you’d expect a 20-PA homer-free streak with probability (1 – (17/249))20, or about 24.3%. My hunch is that Cespedes won’t reach last year’s numbers, but he’ll probably nail 30 home runs this year.
Over the weekend, Bartolo Colon took a tough loss, in both the common and technical senses, when he pitched a 6-inning, 7-K, 1-run ballgame for a game score of 65. Colon pitched to a game score of 65 or better 11 times in 2015, recording a 7-2 record. The Phillies bullpen did not collapse as predicted, meaning that giving up one run was enough to lose the game. Phillies starter Vincent Velasquez outpitched Colon, and the bullpen just held up enough.
Steven Matz starts tonight’s game against the Marlins’ Jarred Cosart. Matz and Cosart faced off last year in September; Tyler Clippard blew the save. Current Marlins are 4-17 against Matz for a .267/.353/.467 line; current Mets slash .264/.349/.472 against Cosart. Cosart was chased after 4 2/3 last time. The Marlins bullpen has pitched to a respectable 3.89 ERA this season and closer A.J. Ramos has converted his only save, so the Mets need to score early and often to get this one under control.
Don Kelly is currently hitting .286/.500/.286 for AAA New Orleans and is unavailable from the bullpen.
The Phillies’ Bullpen Is Truly Wretched (Mets Game 4 Preview) April 9, 2016
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Mets, Mets Game 4, Phillies
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Yesterday’s Mets home opener was joyous – Jacob deGrom‘s son decided to wait a little while longer, we got another masterful performance from Lazarus I Mean Jim Henderson, and Michael Conforto was firmly in Good Lucas Duda Mode. Besides, the Phillies had to go to their bullpen after 5+.
Despite a solid performance by young Jerad Eickhoff – in which he hit a double and scored one of two runs for Philadelphia – the Phillies starter ended up in trouble in the sixth when Duda doubled, Neil Walker singled him home, and Conforto doubled Walker home. Jim Henderson pitched a perfect seventh, and the Mets bullpen allowed only one run (unearned) after Peter Bourjos reached on an E5. Hansel Robles got a K, allowed Bourjos on, and then allowed a hit to Cesar Hernandez before Jerry Blevins came in to clean up lefty-batting Odubel Herrera and Hernandez on a double play. Antonio Bastardo finished the game with two strikeouts, allowing one single.
Bartolo Colon takes the mound today. Photo: Arturo Pardavila III from Hoboken, NJ, USA
The Phillies bullpen has been awful this year, and this game is a microcosm of why. Eickhoff pitched well, but his bullpen couldn’t get a handle on it. Dalier Hinojosa got two outs and, despite a difficult at-bat, rule 5 draftee Daniel Stumpf finally recorded an out. In the seventh, James Russell got a single out, but allowed two walks and three singles; David Hernandez allowed another run before closing out the inning. This season, the Phillies’ starters have posted a 3.80 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP – both quite respectable, especially considering Charlie Morton‘s rough start. The bullpen, however, has pitched to a 12.66 ERA and a 2.44 WHIP, meaning for every inning pitched they allow almost three men to reach base.
Pete Mackanin has used Hinojosa in three of four games thus far, lefties Stumpf and Russell twice each, and Hinojosa and Hernandez three times. In those, Hinojosa and Russell each have one blown save. Stumpf is unproven but being used in relatively high-leverage situations, while Hector Neris is coming in in low-leverage situations despite having some of the best stats on the team. I recognize that Stumpf is young and being broken in – catcher Cameron Rupp came out and put his arm over Stumpf’s shoulder several times in yesterday’s game – but the Phillies seem to be treating his development as a goal that comes at the expense of the team.
Bartolo Colon starts tonight against the Phillies; current Phillies have hit .267/.301/.371 against Bartolo. Odubel Herrera is 4-13 against Colon, and a handful of Phillies are above the .300 mark. Meanwhile, the only Met starter Vincent Velasquez has faced is Alejandro De Aza, who is 1-2.
Bartolo’s stats against current Phillies:
| Name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Howard | 27 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | .208 | .259 | .458 | .718 |
| Darin Ruf | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .143 | .143 | .571 | .714 |
| Carlos Ruiz | 18 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .278 | .278 | .333 | .611 |
| Cesar Hernandez | 8 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .429 | .500 | .429 | .929 |
| Emmanuel Burriss | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 |
| Andres Blanco | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .500 | .571 | .667 | 1.238 |
| Peter Bourjos | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .333 | .429 | .333 | .762 |
| Odubel Herrera | 13 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .308 | .308 | .308 | .615 |
| Freddy Galvis | 15 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .267 | .267 | .333 | .600 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .250 | .250 | .250 | .500 |
| Cameron Rupp | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .200 | .200 | .200 | .400 |
| Maikel Franco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Charlie Morton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Total | 123 | 116 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 25 | .267 | .301 | .371 | .672 |
Bring On The Phils (Mets Game 3 Preview) April 8, 2016
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Mets, Mets game 3, Phillies, Previews
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Larry Bowa becomes apoplectic over Hansel Robles. Photo Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Philadelphia is coming off three losses to Cincinnati. The season opener featured a loss by David Hernandez and a blown save by James Russel, spoiling an excellent start by Jeremy Hellickson (game score of 70). Dalier Hinojosa blew the save and took the loss on Wednesday, flushing an 8-strikeout, 1-run, 7-inning start by Aaron Nola down the drain (game score of 73). Thursday, starter Charlie Morton finally lost his own game, getting bounced after 5 runs in 3 2/3 innings. Hinojosa acquitted himself reasonably, pitching a two-hit 8th but giving up no runs. Rookie Daniel Stumpf walked two and allowed a home run before being hooked, leading him to the rare infinite ERA. Long man Brett Oberholtzer gave up one run in 3 1/3 innings.
The Philly bullpen is beat up. On a day game after a night game, and with Friday the third consecutive game day, it’s difficult to see Hinojosa pitching for the third consecutive day. Hernandez is fresh, but it’s not inconceivable we could see Stumpf in middle relief to try to shake out the yips. Jerad Eickhoff, who cannot spell his own name, will start Friday for Philadelphia. Eickoff pitched 51 innings in 8 games to a 2.65 ERA last year. He had a slightly lucky .257 BAbip with an 8.6 K9 and a 3.77 KBB. His work against the Mets is mixed. Michael Conforto has taken him to school (4-8 with a homer and a walk, despite two Ks); Yoenis Cespedes had a tougher time (1-6, 2 Ks).
The story of the game is that the Mets plan to start Jacob deGrom, who will leave immediately if his wife goes into labor. If that happens before the game, Bartolo Colon and Steven Matz are likely fill-in candidates. deGrom has had a tough time with the Phillies – though he’s 1-0 against them, he’s allowed a 4.41 ERA and a .313/.352/.463 line against them. His numbers against current Phillies are below:
| Name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SH | SF | IBB | HBP | GDP | missG | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Galvis | 8 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .625 | .625 | .625 | 1.250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Odubel Herrera | 8 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .250 | .250 | .250 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ryan Howard | 8 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | .375 | .375 | .750 | 1.125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carlos Ruiz | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .167 | .167 | .167 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cesar Hernandez | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .500 | .750 | .500 | 1.250 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Maikel Franco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Andres Blanco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cameron Rupp | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 41 | 38 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | .342 | .390 | .500 | .890 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
San Diego has lost three straight shutouts. April 7, 2016
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Dodgers, Padres, shutout streak
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Dodgers pitchers Clayton Kershaw, Scott Kazmir, and Kenta Maeda each have a win against the Padres to start the year. After the Kershaw-led 15-0 blowout, the Dodgers followed up with a 3-0 and a 7-0 win. It looks like we’re in for another Padres season, alright.
This is the longest streak for a team being shut out to start a season in MLB history. The Padres have lost three consecutive games with 0 runs; midseason, there were three similar streaks last year (St Louis losing a shutout sweep to Atlanta, Baltimore to Boston, and [funnily enough] the Dodgers to the Giants). 8 teams, most recently the 1992 Cubs, have had a season with four shutout losses.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers are starting the season on three consecutive shutouts (though no single pitcher was credited with one – they were all combined shutouts). Only one other team has managed that – the 1963 St Louis Cardinals. Three teams have 5-game midseason shutout streaks (Baltimore in 1995 and 1974, and the Cardinals in 1962); 14 have 4-game streaks, most recently the 2012 Giants.
The Padres head to Colorado on Friday for a three-game series. The thin air may help open up their scoring, particularly if Yangervis Solarte (who has the team’s only extra-base hit and one of two walks) can engage a bit more. Rockies pitcher Jordan Lyles (Friday) had a 5.14 ERA in 2015 and recorded his only career shutout in 2012.
The Dodgers head to San Francisco today, starting Alex Wood and Ross Stripling. Wood was 12-12 with a 3.86 ERA in 2015; Stripling started 14 games at A and AA last year and is making his MLB debut. Wood has no career shutouts.
Could James Loney fit on the roster? April 7, 2016
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Economics.Tags: James Loney, Mets, transactions
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The Rays released James Loney a few days ago. That’s a big drop down for the 31-year-old first baseman, who was 6th in Rookie of the Year polling in 2007. Though his bat slowed down in 2015 and he posted his worst lines since 2012, he still hit .280/.322/.357. Since the Rays released him, they’re due to pay him $8 million this year, meaning he could pull a Gary Sheffield and play for the league minimum. He doesn’t hit like a traditional first baseman: his 2015 numbers extrapolate to about 25 doubles and 6 home runs for a 162-game, 603-plate-appearance season. He’s a lifetime .266/.310/.418 pinch hitter, and he’s made three appearances as a pinch runner, with the last one coming in 2012. Loney is known as a solid defensive first baseman, although his defensive wins above replacement have been reliably negative and spiked down to -0.9 in 2014 and -0.7 last year.
![By Keith Allison from Owings Mills, USA (James Loney) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Common](https://worldsworstsportsblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/james_loney_2013.jpg)
By Keith Allison from Owings Mills, USA (James Loney) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Common
However, look at the marginal Mets player: Eric Campbell. With Wilmer Flores in a utility role and five full-time outfielders, picking up Loney would mean dropping Campbell or a pitcher. Conceivably we could talk trading Lucas Duda, but that’s not a move I can see the front office making (nor is it a move I’d endorse – Loney’s role would be as a lefty pinch hitter, double switch enabler, and defensive replacement). The Mets are carrying 12 pitchers, but that number includes the as-yet unproven Jim Henderson and starter-in-waiting Logan Verrett; one of them will have to go when Zack Wheeler comes back from Tommy John surgery. Temporarily dropping to 11 pitchers would set us up for a much nastier cut when Wheeler returns.
The truth is that Campbell isn’t a long-term solution, but Loney is even less of one. Campbell is expected to serve as a sixth outfielder in emergencies, while Loney hasn’t played the outfield since the Bush administration. Campbell was also called on to run for Travis d’Arnaud in Tuesday’s game, and logically he’s the soundest choice – Alejandro De Aza swiped 7 but got caught 5 times last year, and the 205-pound Flores isn’t exactly tearing up the base paths. Juan Lagares has some speed, but he’ll be starting games against lefties and won’t always be available from the bench. Loney is also a one-position player, and – though Flores’ ability to play anywhere in the infield is valuable – Campbell is there to prevent serious problems like Anthony Recker playing third base. Campbell also squatted a minor league game last year, so while I wouldn’t trust him to catch, he’s willing to do it.
I’d rather Campbell were playing every day – if he’s going to develop, he needs the time. But bringing in Loney and sending Campbell down would be a mistake for the Mets. It’s a shame. I like Loney. But I don’t think he’ll fit here.
Well, That’s a Thor Spot (Mets Game 2 commentary) April 6, 2016
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Economics.Tags: Mets bullpen, Mets Game 2
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Noah Syndergaard pitched six innings and gave up three hits and one walk, striking out nine, in his season debut. Jim Henderson and Addison Reed notched holds, and Jeurys Familia grabbed his first save of the season. Noted pest Eric Hosmer walked in the sixth inning following a steal by Lorenzo Cain, but was otherwise kept from buzzing around.
Kansas City’s Chris Young took a tough loss (game score of 54) with 93 pitches over 5 innings. Ordinarily, holding the opposition to two runs would be good enough for a win – Kansas City averaged 4.47 runs per game in 2015 – but Syndergaard and the bullpen kept it quiet. Luke Hochevar was a bright spot. He’s come in as a fireman in both games this season, pitching a third of an inning each time with two inherited runners. This season, he’s allowed 0 runs on four inherited. Last year, Luke had 20 inherited runners and scored six, all of which came when he inherited two runners and both scored. Thus far, Hochevar has been excellent as a bridge between a struggling reliever and the next inning, and used like this, he could potentially work every day. He allowed David Wright a high-leverage walk to load the bases, but struck out Yoenis Cespedes to end the inning with Juan Lagares and Travis d’Arnaud on base.
By slgckgc on Flickr (Original version), UCinternational (Crop). CC BY 2.0
Meanwhile, Jim Henderson struck out two for a perfect frame in the seventh, bridging the Mets from Syndergaard to setup man Addison Reed. Henderson lost some velocity on his fastball following Tommy John surgery but averaged 95.86 mph last night. I was expecting him to slow it down as a contrast from Syndergaard, but he kept the pressure on very nicely.
Travis d’Arnaud is having a slow start to the season, on base twice (walks) in eight plate appearances; Salvador Perez, the Royals’ catcher, is on once (single) in six. Catchers are expected to have slow beginnings, but some of them are in great shape so far. Oakland catcher Josh Phegley singled and doubled before being lifted for a pinch hitter; he’s got an OBP of 1.000 in those two appearances. Fellow catchers Chris Iannetta (.750/.857/.750), Nick Hundley (.500/.625/1.000) and Buster Posey (.333/.556/.833) all have OBPs over .500 to start the season. Noted try-hard Blake Swihart is 0-2 (one K) but walked twice; he’s hitting .000/.500/.000 in his only game so far. The median catcher has a .268 OBP so far this year, compared to .294 across last season.
The Mets are idle until Friday afternoon. Jacob deGrom is slated to start, with Bartolo Colon to start on Saturday, but if Baby deGrom makes an appearance, the Mets haven’t ruled out using Bartolo or Steven Matz on Friday. Future Mets closer Hansel Robles has now completed his suspension; expect him to be used in a role similar to Henderson’s moving forward.
MLB Roundup for April 4, 2016 April 5, 2016
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Roundup, times on base
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The Dodgers crushed the Padres, as has become the custom on opening day. Clayton Kershaw got the win in seven innings of one-hit baseball; Chase Utley made six plate appearances, getting on base three times including being hit once by a pitch in his second plate appearance. He knows what he did.1 The Dodgers have beaten the Padres on four opening days since 2009, including last year; San Diego beat the Dodgers on opening day in 2014.
Photo: Keith Allison from Hanover, MD
Back on Sunday, Michael Conforto got on base four times as the DH for the Mets with a hit, a double, and two walks, giving him four plate appearances with an OBP of 1.000. Xavier Nady did the same thing for the Mets in 2006 with two singles and two doubles. The most plate appearances by a Met with an opening day OBP of 1.000 were Kazuo Matsui (2004) and Darryl Strawberry (1988); Hideki Matsui (2006), Carlos Delgado (2002), Darren Lewis (1992) and Dee Fondy (1954) each had six.
Finally, the Giants and the Rockies each knocked in four homers in their opening day contests. The Giants’ total included consecutive eighth-inning homers by Denard Span, Joe Panik, and Buster Posey. The 1988 Mets had 6 opening-day homers, although the game was more notable as David Cone‘s final career hold; he had three, and the other two were in 1987.
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1 Yes, yes, it was accidental. He knows what he did. Unrelated, Damian at Sons of Sam Horn is keeping a close eye on his slides this year.
Put Down The Pitchforks! (Mets Game 1 Commentary) April 4, 2016
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball, Economics.Tags: Matt Harvey, Recaps, Yoenis Cespedes
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In last night’s 4-3 loss to the Royals, Matt Harvey consistently pitched better than Edinson Volquez. Volquez’ control wasn’t where he wanted it to be; it was clear he was laboring as early as the third or fourth inning. Harvey, meanwhile, was fairly stellar through 5. He gave up a single run in the first inning, one in the fourth, and then two in the sixth (one allowed by Bartolo Colon in relief).
Matt Harvey shows a noticeable uptick in batting stats after the fifth inning.
The first run was produced by a combination of a Yoenis Cespedes error in left field and a Travis d’Arnaud passed ball which allowed Mike Moustakas to get on base and advance to third; an Eric Hosmer single brought Moustakas home. In 262 chances in left field in 2015, Cespedes made 5 errors (so he has an error rate of around .019). d’Arnaud had 1 passed ball in 845 plate appearances with a runner in position to steal (a rate of .001). The confluence of those two events is extremely low-probability, and really wasn’t Harvey’s problem. (That’s leaving aside some difficult defense allowing Hosmer’s single.)
Harvey’s control was good – he walked Lorenzo Cain twice, but also struck out two. In 21 at-bats, Harvey allowed 8 hits, for a BAbip of about .380. His second and third innings were perfect; his fourth and sixth innings were plagued by smart, scrappy play from the Royals. When given any opportunity, Kansas City converted it.
Harvey, though, does have visible difficulty when he gets into the late game. Keep in mind, he’s still young and spent last year recovering from Tommy John surgery; however, the line graph above shows four statistics that measure Harvey’s effectiveness, all of which show an upward jump in the sixth. Although his BAbip was lower in the fourth, we’d expect that to be relatively stable; it rises above .300 in the fifth and stays there. There is a drop in the seventh and eighth (and his sole ninth inning appearance was strong), but that presents an endogeneity problem – he stays in when he’s pitching well, but he almost always enters the sixth inning (26 appearances in 29 starts). Similarly, opponents seem to “figure out” Harvey as the game progresses: his OBP and SLG allowed rise sharply after the second appearance:
Harvey’s opponent “figure him out.”
Harvey didn’t have a “bad” game. He was left out longer than he should have been for confidence-related reasons, and he got a little unlucky. So stop playing the Family Guy clip, stop making urine-related jokes, and support the team.
Dear Jenrry February 13, 2016
Posted by tomflesher in Baseball.Tags: Jenrry Fucking Mejia, Jenrry Mejia
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You idiot.
Jenrry Mejia during better days. TastyPoutine, photo.
You, Jenrry Mejia, were a top prospect by the time you were 20. You shined shoes, but switched to playing baseball because the money was better. It’s funny how the narrative focused on the first half of that sentence but ignored the second. If we’d listened a little harder, we would have seen this coming.
You tested positive for Stanozolol. While still under suspension, you tested positive for Stanozolol and Boldenone. Then, because you can’t get out of your own way, you tested positive a third and, hopefully, final time.
Jenrry, your conduct – and your “I didn’t do it” non-defense – is inexcusable. Some will look for reasons to believe you aren’t at fault, but the truth is that you had a responsibility to monitor what went into your body. Honestly, Jenrry, we know that you just didn’t care about whether you played or not. You were in it for the money, and you did whatever you thought you could get away with.
Your conduct isn’t the conduct of a player who was shocked to test positive. Your conduct is that of a greedy, slimy person who didn’t care that he was living someone else’s dream and who didn’t care what he was pissing away. The truth is you never cared about the Mets or their fans, and when you apply to be reinstated, we know you don’t care about the game. You’ll never play in the independent leagues just for love of the game, like Mark Hendrickson and Wilson Valdez. You might go back to the Dominican Republic and tell stories to children who don’t know any better about your connections to the big leagues. You might try to find work as a pitching coach. You might even try to write a book. But Jenrry, you know as well as we all do now – you wasted your talent because you didn’t love the game.
Those of us who do love the game? We understand, intellectually, why you’d do this, but – like Ted Williams, who never really wanted to be a manager, or Tiny Lister, who never wanted to wrestle – it just doesn’t make sense to those of us on the outside.
Sure, some good has come of this, particularly for current Mets closer Jeurys Familia and future Mets closer Hansel Robles. Jeurys wouldn’t have had the chance to step up; Hansel would have been stuck in the minors without getting the opportunities he did over most of this year. Even Vic Black and Logan Verrett, both at the margin most of the 2015 season, benefited from your stupidity.
The real good that came from this, though, is the newfound respect we have for people who really do have that love of the game. The Josh Paul, Kelly Shoppach, Don Kelly types who labor on the bench for years, the Michael Cuddyer types who maybe stay a little longer than they should but step aside when it’s right for the team, and the Julio Franco and Bobby Valentine types who will probably die in the middle of a game. You reminded us of the need for those people, who truly love the game.
You colossal, ungrateful idiot.
Trends in Hat Tricks, 1987-2016 February 9, 2016
Posted by tomflesher in Hockey, Sports.Tags: data visualization, hat trick, hockey, time series
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Hat tricks, 1987-2016; bubble size is the number of hat tricks by that year’s leader
Yesterday’s post on hat tricks raised a question – what’s the historical likelihood of a hat trick? Above is a time series of hat tricks by year, with bubble size weighted by the number of hat tricks scored by that year’s leader. The largest bubble is Mario Lemieux with 9 in 1988-89. The largest since 2000 was Jonathan Cheechoo with 5 in 2005-2006.
This looks like a significant downward trend, and it is; with each passing year, and controlling for games played, the expected number of hat tricks declines by about 1.2 (p = .0147). Meanwhile, adding another game to each team’s schedule seems to increase the number of hat tricks in a season by about .85 (p = .00005). There’s no statistical persistence of the numbers (that is, the lag of hat tricks has a coefficient not statistically different from 0). This downward trend is a bit confusing, since at first glance there hasn’t been a visible decrease in the quality of goaltending. That’s probably my next project.
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